Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2023

While the rise in treasury rates has been less dramatic this year, rates have continued to rise across the term structure: US Treasury While short term rates rose sharply in the first half of the year, and long term rates stabilized, the third quarter has sen a reversal, with short term rates now stabilizing and long term rates rising.

Marketability 120

Marketability Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 120

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

In my third post at the start of 2023, I looked at US treasuries, the long-touted haven of safety for investors. In 2022, they were in the eye on the storm, with the ten-year US treasury bond depreciating in price by more than 19% during the year, the worst year for US treasury returns in a century.

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

With this investment, you face price risk , since even though you know what you will receive as a coupon or cash flow in future periods, since the present value of these cash flows, will change as rates change. For an investment to be risk free then, it has to meet two conditions.

Risk-free Rate 98

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

To capture the market's mood, I back out the expected return (and equity risk premium) that investors are pricing in, through an implied equity risk premium: Put simply, the expected return is an internal rate of return derived from the pricing of stocks, and the expected cash flows from holding them, and is akin to a yield to maturity on bonds.

Risk Premium 79

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Treasury 79

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

The treasury curve became steeper, but only at the shortest end of the spectrum, with the slope rising for the 2-year, relative to the 3-month, but not at all, when comparing the 10-year to the 2-year rate.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 1, 2022

The first is the return that can be earned on guaranteed investments , i.e., US treasury bills and bonds, for instance, if you are a investor in US dollar, since it is a measure of what someone who takes no or very low risk can expect to earn. That pullback has had its consequences, with equity risk premiums rising around the world.

Marketability 99

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums. It is true that economists have researched risk aversion for centuries and concluded that investors are collectively risk averse, and that the level of risk aversion varies across age groups, income levels and time.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

Government Bond/Bill Rates in 2023 I will start by looking at government bond rates across the world, with the emphasis on US treasuries, which suffered their worst year in history in 2022, down close to 20% for the year, as interest rates surged. The Fed Effect: Where's the beef? The Fed Effect: Where's the beef?

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

ThomsonReuters

MAY 6, 2021

Discounted cash flow approaches are also utilized within other functions of an organization, such as treasury, budgeting, financial planning and analysis, and tax planning. The adjustment added to the risk-free rate to arrive at the risk-adjusted rate is often referred to as the “risk premium.”

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Intangible Assets 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Risk Premiums : You cannot make informed financial decisions, without having measures of the price of risk in markets, and I report my estimates for these values for both debt and equity markets. I extend my equity risk premium approach to cover other countries, using sovereign default spreads as my starting point, at this link.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Interest rates : To understand the link between expected inflation and interest rates, consider the Fisher equation, where a nominal riskfree interest rate (which is what treasury bond rates) can be broken down into expected inflation and expected real interest rate components.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The macro variables that I track on my site relate to the price of risk, a key input into valuation, in both equity and debt markets: US Equity Risk Premiums : The equity risk premium is the price of risk in equity markets.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. The Stocks Story As treasury rates have risen in 2021, equity markets have been surprisingly resilient, with stocks up during the first three months.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Simply Treasury

AUGUST 2, 2022

The definition of "net equity" is as follows: equity of the company = sum of subscribed capital, share premiums, revaluation reserves, reserves and retained earnings, minus the tax value of the company's holdings in associated companies and the tax value of its own shares. risk premium if the company is an SME as defined by European law).

Equity 52

Equity Risk Premium Banking Finance 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year. 06) and 10-year T.Bonds (-0.48).

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Valutico

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Rf = Risk-free Rate. Rm – Rf) = Equity Market Risk Premium. Cp = Cost of Equity Premium. Risk free rate (can use 10y Treasury). The details of how the CAPM works is beyond the scope of this article but in short, the formula is as follows: Ce = Rf + B x (Rm – Rf) + Cp. Ce = Cost of Equity.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Weighted Average Cost of Capital Net Present Value 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

Historical Stock Returns: Pre and Post-tax At the start of every year, I update a dataset , where I look at historical returns on stocks over time, and compare these returns to returns on treasury bonds/bills, corporate bonds and gold. It is one more reason that blindly using historical risk premiums can lead to static and strange values.

Dividends 52

Dividends Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Equity Risk across Countries Default risk measures how much risk investors are exposed to, when investing in bonds issued by a government, but when you own a business, or the equity in that business, your risk exposure is not just magnified, but also broader.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

The hopeful note was that the Fed would lower the Fed Funds rate during the course of the year, triggering (at least in the minds of Fed watchers) lower interest rates across the yield curve, Clearly, the market not only fought through those concerns, but did so in the face of rising treasury rates, especially at the long end of the spectrum.

Equity 126

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 126

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

In this post, I will begin by looking at movements in treasury rates, across maturities, during 2024, and the resultant shifts in yield curves. I will follow up by examining changes in corporate bond rates, across the default ratings spectrum, trying to get a measure of how the price of risk in bond markets changed during 2024.

Banking 69

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 69

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 10, 2025

Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity risk premiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.

Risk Premium 115

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups Corporate Finance 115

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.

Risk Premium 72

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 72

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 18, 2025

In fact, this is the argument that I used in my second data update to explain why comparing the earnings yield to the treasury bond rate is unlikely to yield a complete assessment of whether stocks are under or over valued, since it ignores growth and reinvestment entirely.

Equity 52

Equity Book Value Marketability Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 24, 2024

After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my definition of a crisis.

Risk Premium 75

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups EBITDA 75

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

Thus, if the US treasury bond rate (4.5%) is the riskfree rate in US dollars, and the expected inflation rates in US dollars and Brazilian reals are 2.5% Thus, if the US treasury bond rate (4.5%) is the riskfree rate in US dollars, and the expected inflation rates in US dollars and Brazilian reals are 2.5%

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 67

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. In the table below, I show my estimates of the implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500 at the start of every month, since January 2024, and on March 14, 2025.

Start-ups 128

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 128