Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 11, 2023

In this section, I will begin measures of country default risk, including sovereign ratings and CDS spreads, before moving to more expansive measures of country risk before concluding with measures of equity risk premiums for countries, a pre-requisite for estimating the values of companies with operations in those countries.

Risk Premium 96

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 96

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

Relative Risk Measures Before we embark on how to measure relative risk, where there can be substantial disagreement, let me start with a statement on which there should be agreement. By the same token, Embraer and TCS are global firms that happen to be incorporated in Brazil and India, respectively.

Risk Premium 90

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 90

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

Equity Risk Premium Path : The equity risk premium of 5.24%, estimated at the start of May 2022, is at the high end of historical equity risk premiums , but we have seen higher premiums, either in crises (end of 2008, first quarter of 2020) or when inflation has been high (the late 1970s).

Risk Premium 102

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 102

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums. It is true that economists have researched risk aversion for centuries and concluded that investors are collectively risk averse, and that the level of risk aversion varies across age groups, income levels and time.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

To capture the market's mood, I back out the expected return (and equity risk premium) that investors are pricing in, through an implied equity risk premium: Put simply, the expected return is an internal rate of return derived from the pricing of stocks, and the expected cash flows from holding them, and is akin to a yield to maturity on bonds.

Risk Premium 79

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Treasury 79

Musings on Markets

JULY 1, 2022

And Consequences If you are wondering why you should care about risk capital's ebbs and flows, it is because you will feel its effects in almost everything you do in investing and business. That pullback has had its consequences, with equity risk premiums rising around the world.

Marketability 99

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about risk capital that spilled across markets and asset classes.

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2023

Price of Risk The drop in stock and bond prices in the third quarter of 2023 can partly be attributed to rising interest rates, but how much of that drop is due to the price of risk changing? below the index value of 4288, confirming my base case conclusion.

Marketability 120

Marketability Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 120

BV Specialists

AUGUST 12, 2024

For example, in business valuation, the multiples and risk premiums relied upon under the market and income approaches may vary considerably depending on the specific company and industry involved.

Risk Premium 90

Risk Premium Appraisal Business Valuation Marketability 90

Musings on Markets

JULY 27, 2022

The effects of inflation show up first as higher risk free rates , across currencies, and next in higher risk premiums, with both equity risk premiums and default spreads rising. As a company with the bulk of its business in India, Zomato again is more exposed to these developments. 2% from my IPO valuation.

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 98

LaPorte

OCTOBER 9, 2023

(authored by RSM US LLP) For the first time in years, the risk premium has been positive, which is an important signal that interest rates are indeed returning to normal. The post The great rate reset: The end of easy money, rising yields and the onset of a new era first appeared on LaPorte.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium 52

Valutico

FEBRUARY 27, 2024

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): According to CAPM, the expected return on a stock has two main components: the risk-free rate and a risk premium. The risk-free rate represents the return an investor can get without taking on any risk, typically derived from government bonds.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Beta 52

Andrew Stolz

AUGUST 5, 2020

If an investor moves money from the risk-free asset into the stock market, they should expect to earn a return in excess of the risk-free rate, what is called an equity risk premium. These risks can be reduced through the diversification of a portfolio. How Do You Calculate the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Beta Weighted Average Cost of Capital Risk Premium 52

ThomsonReuters

MAY 6, 2021

The adjustment added to the risk-free rate to arrive at the risk-adjusted rate is often referred to as the “risk premium.” The risk premium reflects that market participants require compensation for taking on uncertainty. The risk premium may incorporate factors such as credit risk or market illiquidity.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Intangible Assets 52

Andrew Stolz

AUGUST 6, 2020

The return on assets is determined by systematic factors such as changes in inflation , risk premiums, interest rates, etc. Investors construct portfolios with unsystematic risks, which are well-diversified to reduce total portfolio risk. In theory, arbitrage provides investors with a high chance of success. 1 + RP1 + ??2+

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Beta Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

Just as rising equity risk premiums push up the cost of equity, rising default spreads push up the cost of debt of companies, with the added complication of higher default risk for those companies that had pushed to the limits of their borrowing capacity in a low interest-rate environment.

Treasury 96

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 96

Equilest

JANUARY 7, 2025

A high M-Score could indicate higher risk, warranting a higher discount rate and thus a lower valuation. Using our sliding scale, we might apply a 10% discount to the valuation:$100 million - (10% $100 million) = $90 millionThis adjusted valuation reflects the increased risk associated with potential earnings manipulation.

Business Valuation 40

Business Valuation Risk Premium Finance Start-ups 40

Equilest

JANUARY 3, 2023

And the factor loading for country risk might be 0.1, meaning that 10% of the stock's risk is specific to the country in which the company is based. Next, we need to estimate the risk-free rate and the risk premium for each risk factor. x 5%) + (0.2 x 4%) + (0.1 x 5%) + (0.2 x 4%) + (0.1

Risk Premium 40

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Market Risk Finance 40

Peak Business Valuation

NOVEMBER 24, 2024

At Peak , these factors help us determine the company-specific risk premium. Customer Concentration: Having customers who make up a large part of revenue risks the company losing a large part of its revenue. Understanding these for an HVAC litigation valuation is paramount.

Business Valuation 52

Business Valuation Fair Market Value Appraisal Discounted Cash Flow 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last data update, I measured the price of risk in the equity market in the form on an implied equity risk premium, and chronicled how it rose sharply in 2022 and dropped in 2023, paralleling the movements in default spreads.

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Reynolds Holding

OCTOBER 22, 2024

Our study also indicates that market awareness of these issues is growing, as seen in the higher risk premiums demanded by loan investors when these relationships are perceived to compromise the integrity of loan agreements. This lack of demand often forces lead banks to offer loans at higher interest rates or with greater discounts.

Equity 45

Equity Risk Premium Banking Private Equity Firm 45

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Investors will either see more relative risk (or beta) in these companies, if the risks affect an entire sector, or in equity risk premiums, if they are market-wide. Applications : My argument for using implied equity risk premiums is that they are dynamic and forward-looking.

Risk Premium 76

Risk Premium Start-ups Beta Marketability 76

ThomsonReuters

APRIL 7, 2021

When submitting financials as part of your loan package, consider accompanying them with voluntary disclosures similar to the ones that public companies provide about non-GAAP financial measures, and in the MD&A and risk factor sections of their SEC filings.

Risk Premium 71

Risk Premium Business Valuation Equity 71

Equilest

APRIL 11, 2023

With limited features and formulas, it can be difficult to account for all the necessary parameters in a valuation, such as interest rates, equity risk premiums, and beta. It lacks interest rates, equity risk premiums, beta, and other important data.

Business Valuation 40

Business Valuation Beta Risk Premium Discounted Cash Flow 40

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Corporate Bonds: No Shortage of Risk Capital In my last post, I chronicled the movement in the equity risk premium, i.e. the price of risk in the equity market, during 2021, but the bond market has its own, and more measurable, price of risk in the form of corporate default spreads.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Valutico

DECEMBER 12, 2023

We’ve added a ‘date picker’ across key resources sections, allowing you to examine risk-free rates, corporate tax rates, market risk premium, and country ratings across any historic date you select. Resources Section Date Improvement: What? Explore this feature in the Resources section. Why Important?

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Market Risk Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

As I noted in my last post , rising risk free rates and equity risk premiums have pushed up the costs of equity for all companies, and Tesla is not only no exception but is perhaps even more exposed as an above-average risk company.

Start-ups 98

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 98

Equilest

JULY 31, 2022

According to the CAPM model - the return required by the shareholders can be described using the following equation: Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate + Beta x Risk Premium. It is customary to calculate the weighted average capital price using a financial model formula known as the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). .

Beta 40

Beta Business Valuation Finance Discounted Cash Flow 40

Appraisal Rights

JUNE 5, 2017

In selecting the appropriate equity risk premium, the court observed that whether to use supply-side or historical ERP should be determined on a case-by-case basis.

Beta 40

Beta Risk Premium Capital Structure Discounted Cash Flow 40

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

the returns you can make on investments of equivalent risk, and that game became a lot more difficult to win in 2022. Conclusion If 2022 was a reminder to investors that the end game for every business is to not just generate profits, but to generate enough profits to cover its opportunity costs, i.e,

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Andrew Stolz

MARCH 20, 2020

The formula implies the return an investor expects from a risk-free investment plus the return from the stock in relation to market volatility. The market risk premium is calculated from a market rate of return less a risk-free rate. The formula is expressed in the following.

Beta 52

Beta Capital Structure Risk-free Rate Weighted Average Cost of Capital 52

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

Risk : When I valued Tesla last in early 2020, I used a cost of capital of 7%, reflecting a risk free rate of 1.75% and an equity risk premium of 5.2% for mature markets.

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Equilest

APRIL 12, 2023

This will enable you to get an economic analysis of your industry, as well as the earning multiple, sales multiple, beta, and risk premium, all automatically from the Equitest database.

Business Valuation 40

Business Valuation Beta Risk Premium Marketability 40

Valutico

AUGUST 10, 2023

It needs to incorporate both the project risk and the opportunity cost, typically done using the CAPM method. However, market information required for CAPM, such as beta coefficients and risk premiums, may not be available for SMEs.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Asset-based Approach Intangible Assets Business Valuation 52

Appraiser Newsroom

MAY 1, 2024

Insurance industry terminology such as risk, premium, loss, deductibles, coverage limits, and perils are some of the fundamental concepts appraisers must grasp. Different property insurance policies have unique features and limitations.

Appraisal 40

Appraisal Risk Premium Marketability 40

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In computing this implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500, I start with the dividends and buybacks on the stocks in the index in the most recent year (which is known) and assume that they grow at the rate that analysts who follow the index are projecting for the next five years.

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 98

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

Risk premiums No effect or even a decrease. Risk premia may rise as inflation increases, because higher inflation is almost always more volatile than low inflation. Riskfree rate will rise.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52