Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

In general, higher and more volatile inflation has negative effects on all financial assets, from stocks to corporate bonds to treasury bonds, and neutral to positive effects on gold, collectibles and real assets. The former is short hand for the small cap premium and the latter is the proxy for the value factor in returns.

Price to Book 98

Price to Book Dividends Beta Equity 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

The treasury curve became steeper, but only at the shortest end of the spectrum, with the slope rising for the 2-year, relative to the 3-month, but not at all, when comparing the 10-year to the 2-year rate.

Risk-free Rate 87

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 87

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

In my third post at the start of 2023, I looked at US treasuries, the long-touted haven of safety for investors. In 2022, they were in the eye on the storm, with the ten-year US treasury bond depreciating in price by more than 19% during the year, the worst year for US treasury returns in a century.

Marketability 96

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 96

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

In the graph below, I list out two measures of expected inflation, one from a inflation expectations ETF ( ProShares Inflation Expectation ETF ) and the other from the Federal Reserve 5-year forward inflation measure , computed as the difference between treasury and TIPs rates.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Interest rates : To understand the link between expected inflation and interest rates, consider the Fisher equation, where a nominal riskfree interest rate (which is what treasury bond rates) can be broken down into expected inflation and expected real interest rate components.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. The Stocks Story As treasury rates have risen in 2021, equity markets have been surprisingly resilient, with stocks up during the first three months.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). from its level at the start of the year.

Risk Premium 82

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 82