Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

Historical Data: 1930-2019 To see how this framework works in practice, let's start by looking at the performance of US stocks, across the decades, and look at the returns on stocks, broadly categorized based on market capitalization and price to book ratios.

Price to Book 102

Price to Book Dividends Beta Equity 102

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

At the start of the year, the consensus of market experts was that this would be a difficult year for markets, given the macro worries about inflation and an impending recession, and adding in the fear of the Fed raising rates to this mix made bullishness a rare commodity on Wall Street. That pessimism was not restricted to market outlooks.

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 10, 2023

We will then follow up with a framework for thinking about how key people can affect the value of a business, with practical suggestions on valuing and pricing key people. We will end with a discussion of how enterprises try, with mixed effects, to build protections against the loss of key personnel.

Key Person Discount 129

Key Person Discount Start-ups Price to Book Marketability 129

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

for the year are at war with its concurrent promise to keep rates low; after all, adding those numbers up yields a intrinsic risk free rate of 8.7%. The Stocks Story As treasury rates have risen in 2021, equity markets have been surprisingly resilient, with stocks up during the first three months. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Valutico

MAY 6, 2024

Special considerations for valuing M&A deals include synergies, regulatory issues, economic conditions, tax implications, technology/IP valuation, financing structure, buyer type, and purchase price allocation. Other techniques like Leveraged Buyout (LBO) and Real Options Valuation offer unique perspectives on valuation.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Precedent Transaction Analysis Weighted Average Cost of Capital Comparable Company Analysis 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The Lead In To understand the market effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we need to start with an assessment of the two countries, and their places in the global political, economic and market landscape, leading in. Ukraine, a part of the Soviet Union, has had its shares of ups and downs, and its economic footprint is even smaller.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100