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Historical Data: 1930-2019 To see how this framework works in practice, let's start by looking at the performance of US stocks, across the decades, and look at the returns on stocks, broadly categorized based on market capitalization and price to book ratios.
At the start of the year, the consensus of market experts was that this would be a difficult year for markets, given the macro worries about inflation and an impending recession, and adding in the fear of the Fed raising rates to this mix made bullishness a rare commodity on Wall Street. That pessimism was not restricted to market outlooks.
We will then follow up with a framework for thinking about how key people can affect the value of a business, with practical suggestions on valuing and pricing key people. We will end with a discussion of how enterprises try, with mixed effects, to build protections against the loss of key personnel.
for the year are at war with its concurrent promise to keep rates low; after all, adding those numbers up yields a intrinsic risk free rate of 8.7%. The Stocks Story As treasury rates have risen in 2021, equity markets have been surprisingly resilient, with stocks up during the first three months. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%
Special considerations for valuing M&A deals include synergies, regulatory issues, economic conditions, tax implications, technology/IP valuation, financing structure, buyer type, and purchase price allocation. Other techniques like Leveraged Buyout (LBO) and Real Options Valuation offer unique perspectives on valuation.
In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.
The Lead In To understand the market effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we need to start with an assessment of the two countries, and their places in the global political, economic and market landscape, leading in. Ukraine, a part of the Soviet Union, has had its shares of ups and downs, and its economic footprint is even smaller.
Looking at US equities, the S&P 500 is up about 11% and the NASDAQ about 5%, from start of the year levels, and the underperformance of the latter has led to a wave of stories about whether this is start of the long awaited comeback of value stocks, after a decade of lagging growth stocks.
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. That is not true!
The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.
Zomato, an Indian online food-delivery company, was opened up to public market investors on July 14, 2021, and its market debut is being watched for clues by a number of other online ventures in India, waiting in the wings to go public. The Zomato IPO clocks in at 420 pages , much of it designed to bore readers into submission.
I follow up by looking at companies broken down by market capitalization, with an eye on whether the much-vaunted small cap premium has made a comeback. In the next section, I look at stock returns for companies in different price to book deciles, in a simplistic assessment of the value premium. trillion ($13.6
The Lead In As noted in the introductory paragraph, I start from a position of ignorance about the Adani Group, and it thus made sense to fill in that gap. First, they are infrastructure businesses , requiring large up-front investments and having long gestation periods, with regulatory and government oversight.
I pointed to the flaw in the logic, but the comments thereafter suggested such deep confusion about what returns on equity or capital measure, and what comprises an efficient market, that I think it does make sense to go back to basics and see if some of the confusion can be cleared up.
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