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The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!

Musings on Markets

If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. That said, I don't blame you, if are confused not only about how I estimate this premium, but what it measures.

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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

The premium that investors demand over and above the risk free rate is the equity risk premium , and practitioners in finance have wrestled with how best to estimate that number, since it is not easily observable (unlike the expected return on a bond which manifests as a current market interest rate).

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

In computing this implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500, I start with the dividends and buybacks on the stocks in the index in the most recent year (which is known) and assume that they grow at the rate that analysts who follow the index are projecting for the next five years.

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Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update!

Musings on Markets

In a third post on July 1, 2022 , I pointed to inflation as a key culprit in the retreat of risk capital, i.e., capital invested in the riskiest segments of every market, and presented evidence of the impact on risk premiums (bond default spreads and equity risk premiums) in markets.

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Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets

Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums. It is true that economists have researched risk aversion for centuries and concluded that investors are collectively risk averse, and that the level of risk aversion varies across age groups, income levels and time.

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Discount Rate—Explanation, Definition and Examples

Valutico

Key takeaways: The discount rate is primarily used by central banks to manage the economy and investors to calculate the present value of future cash flows from an investment. Investment Discount Rate: In investment analysis, the discount rate is employed to calculate the present value of future cash flows.

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

By the same token, an investment that delivers a guaranteed return over ten years will not be risk free to an investor with a six month time horizon. Expected returns for Risky Investments : The risk-free rate becomes the base on which you build to estimate expected returns on all other investments.