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I am not a market prognosticator for a simple reason. I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis.
In this post, I will begin with a historical assessment of stock returns in the recent past, then move on to evaluate the returns that investors can expect to make, given how they are priced at the start of 2022, and end with a do-it-yourself valuation of the index right now. The year that was.
By the end of 2021, it was clear that this bout of inflation was not as transient a phenomenon as some had made it out to be, and the big question leading in 2022, for investors and markets, is how inflation will play out during the year, and beyond, and the consequences for stocks, bonds and currencies.
Zomato, an Indian online food-delivery company, was opened up to public market investors on July 14, 2021, and its market debut is being watched for clues by a number of other online ventures in India, waiting in the wings to go public.
As the world's attention is focused on the war in the Ukraine, it is the human toll, in death and injury, that should get our immediate attention, and you may find a focus on economics and markets to be callous. The increase in default spreads was not restricted to foreign markets, as fear also pushed up spreads in the corporate bond market.
Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all. For instance, is it true, as some assert, that inflation was high last year because companies raised prices to increase profits?
I spent the first week of 2021 in the same way that I have spent the first week of every year since 1995, collecting data on publicly traded companies and analyzing how they navigated the cross currents of the prior year, both in operating and market value terms.
As we approach the mid point of 2021, financial markets, for the most part, have had a good year so far. With other items, where prices can be volatile over short period, like gasoline, services often measure inflation with and without these items to reduce the effect of volatility.
The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The Interest Rates Story To me the biggest story of markets in 2021 has been the rise of interest rates, especially at the long end of the maturity spectrum.
The second was a comment that I made on a LinkedIn post that had built on my implied equity premium approach to the Indian market but had run into a roadblock because of an assumption that, in an efficient market, the return on equity would equate to the cost of equity.
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