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In my second data update post from the start of this year , I looked at US equities in 2022, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% during the year and the NASDAQ, overweighted in technology, feeling even more pain, down about a third, during the year. trillion below their values from the start of 2022. that was lost last year.
That positive result notwithstanding, the recovery was uneven, with a big chunk of the increase in marketcapitalization coming from seven companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, NVidia and Tesla) and wide divergences in performance across stocks, in performance. increase in marketcapitalization.
I would be lying if I said that I have had clarity about Tesla's story over the last decade, because it has so many tangents, distractions and shifts along the way, flirting with narratives about being a battery company, an energy company and a technology company. In sum, the company's market cap has risen from $2.8 for mature markets.
The various problems facing the company led the court to embrace the respondents’ theory that SWS would continue to face an uphill climb given its relatively small size, which prevented it from scaling its substantial regulatory, technological, and back-office costs. Hilltop’s Influence on the Sale Process Rendered Merger Price Unreliable.
While some of this reversal is to be expected in any market, there are questions about whether it has anything to do with rising rates, as well as whether there may be light at the end of the tunnel for some investor groups who were left out of the market run-up in the last decade. Riskpremiums No effect or even a decrease.
I do believe that too much is often made of these differences, as it is generally more the rule than the exception that markets, when they are up strongly, get the bulk of that rise from a small sub-set of stocks or sectors.
When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (riskpremiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with marketcapitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world.
By focusing so much attention on a small subset of companies, you risk developing tunnel vision, especially when doing peer group comparisons. While some of the companies in this data trace their existence back decades, there is a healthy proportion of younger companies, many in emerging markets and new industries.
The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board.
In this section, I will lay out a mechanism for evaluating the effects of borrowing on the cost of funding a business, i.e., the cost of capital, and talk about why firms may under or overshoot this optimal. at least with technology companies).
Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a marketcapitalization that exceeds zero. For debt markets, it takes the form of default spreads, and I report the latest estimates of these corporate bond spreads at this link.
Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity riskpremiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to riskpremiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity riskpremiums , and the latter by default spreads.
The AI story, before DeepSeek The AI story has been building for a while, reflecting the convergence of two forces in technology - more computing power, often in smaller and smaller packages, and the accumulation of data, on technology platforms and elsewhere. What is it that makes the DeepSeek story so compelling?
Thus, my estimates of equity riskpremiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.
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