Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

for the year are at war with its concurrent promise to keep rates low; after all, adding those numbers up yields a intrinsic risk free rate of 8.7%. While I understand that much of the real growth in 2021 is a bounce back from 2020, even using a 2-3% real growth yields risk free rates that are much, much higher than today's numbers.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 98

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The Lead In To understand the market effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we need to start with an assessment of the two countries, and their places in the global political, economic and market landscape, leading in.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. That is not true!

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

That may reflect the concern that once a person or entity starts borrowing to fund its needs, it is easy to overuse debt, and risk its wellbeing in the process. An Optimizing Tool In my second and third data posts for this year, I chronicled the effects of rising interest rates and risk premiums on costs of equity and capital.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings!

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Since I am lucky enough to have access to databases that carry data on all publicly traded stocks, I choose all publicly traded companies, with a market price that exceeds zero, as my universe, for computing all statistics. Consequently, I do report industry averages for the two fastest growing emerging markets in India and China.

Dividends 105

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 105

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 126

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 126

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 10, 2025

It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and running, and I plan to use this post to describe my data sample, my processes for computing industry statistics and the links to finding them. In the table below, we compare the changes in regional market capitalizations (in $ millions) over time.

Risk Premium 115

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups Corporate Finance 115

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. Much of the confusion in applying cost of capital comes from not recognizing that it morphs, depending on where it is being used.

Risk Premium 72

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 72

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2025

I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics of AI are pedestrian and that there will be things that I don't get right in this post. Along the way, the the AI story picked up supercomputing companies, as passengers, again on the belief that Ai systems would find a use for them.

Start-ups 131

Start-ups Marketability Technology Risk Premium 131

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

It is for this reason that I chose to compute returns differently, using the following constructs: I included all publicly traded stocks in each market, or at least those with a market capitalization available for them. I converted all of the market capitalizations into US dollars , just to make them comparable.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 67

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

I will start with a couple of confessions. Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies.

Start-ups 126

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 126