Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

No matter how you slice it, there is no denying that 2022 was the worst year for US equity investors since 2008, and the magnitude of the damage is even more staggering, if you consider it in market value terms. trillion in market capitalization, but for balance, it is also worth noting that US equities are still holding on to a gain of $6.9

Equity 72

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 72

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Beyond the 10-year maturity, the slope of the yield curve actually flattened out, with the difference between the 30-year rate and the 10-year rate declining by 0.34%. Note that the decrease in default spreads, at least for the lower ratings, mirrors the drop in the implied equity risk premium during the course of 2021.

Risk-free Rate 87

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 87

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

for the year are at war with its concurrent promise to keep rates low; after all, adding those numbers up yields a intrinsic risk free rate of 8.7%. The Stocks Story As treasury rates have risen in 2021, equity markets have been surprisingly resilient, with stocks up during the first three months.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).

Risk Premium 82

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 82

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

The graph below contains Tesla's stock price, adjusted for stock splits, going back to 2010, and ending in November 2021: While the graph illustrates the surge in the stock price, the table embedded in the graph conveys the rise more vividly, by listing Tesla's market capitalization in millions of dollars. for mature markets.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

The first of the is as companies scale up, there will be a point where they will hit a growth wall, and their growth will converge on the growth rate for the economy. There is not much room to maneuver on either number, since half of all US companies have costs of capital between 7.3% It was the reason that I argued at a $1.2

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Risk Premium 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a market capitalization that exceeds zero. For debt markets, it takes the form of default spreads, and I report the latest estimates of these corporate bond spreads at this link.

Risk Premium 93

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 93