Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Corporate Bonds: No Shortage of Risk Capital In my last post, I chronicled the movement in the equity risk premium, i.e. the price of risk in the equity market, during 2021, but the bond market has its own, and more measurable, price of risk in the form of corporate default spreads.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Appraisal Rights

JUNE 5, 2017

In selecting the appropriate equity risk premium, the court observed that whether to use supply-side or historical ERP should be determined on a case-by-case basis.

Beta 40

Beta Risk Premium Capital Structure Discounted Cash Flow 40

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

Finally, my starting cost of capital of 10.15% reflects the reality that the riskfree rate and equity risk premiums have risen over 2022, and my ending number of 9% is an indication that I expect Tesla to become less risky over time. It was the reason that I argued at a $1.2

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Risk Premium 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

I do believe that too much is often made of these differences, as it is generally more the rule than the exception that markets, when they are up strongly, get the bulk of that rise from a small sub-set of stocks or sectors.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a market capitalization that exceeds zero. For debt markets, it takes the form of default spreads, and I report the latest estimates of these corporate bond spreads at this link.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Investors will either see more relative risk (or beta) in these companies, if the risks affect an entire sector, or in equity risk premiums, if they are market-wide. Applications : My argument for using implied equity risk premiums is that they are dynamic and forward-looking.

Risk Premium 76

Risk Premium Start-ups Beta Marketability 76

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

Risk premiums No effect or even a decrease. Risk premia may rise as inflation increases, because higher inflation is almost always more volatile than low inflation. In January, the NASDAQ continued its 2020 success, and the S&P 500 lagged, losing value. Riskfree rate will rise.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

In this section, I will lay out a mechanism for evaluating the effects of borrowing on the cost of funding a business, i.e., the cost of capital, and talk about why firms may under or overshoot this optimal.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. At this stage, you may be ready to bail on stocks, but I have one final card to play.

Equity 127

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 127

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 10, 2025

Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity risk premiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.

Risk Premium 119

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups Corporate Finance 119

Musings on Markets

APRIL 7, 2025

In percentage terms, energy stocks have lost the most in value, with market capitalizations dropping by 14.2%, dragged down by declining oil prices. In the language of risk, they are demanding higher prices for risk, translating into higher risk premiums.

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 98

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.

Risk Premium 72

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 72

Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2025

With individual stocks, that danger gets multiplied, with investors buying stocks that are being sold off to for legitimate reasons (a broken business model, dysfunctional management, financial distress) and waiting for a market correction that never comes. Contrarian Investing: The Psychological Tests!

Start-ups 135

Start-ups Price to Book Marketability Equity 135

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2025

Since the companies involved in building the AI infrastructure are the ones that are most tangibly (and immediately) benefiting from the AI boom, they are also the companies that have seen the biggest boost in market cap, as the AI story heated up.

Start-ups 133

Start-ups Marketability Technology Risk Premium 133

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

10] Initial Public Offerings (IPOs): While the ultimate pricing of an IPO is determined by public market demand and conditions, pre-IPO valuations set by late-stage private rounds guide expectations and internal planning. [11] Its components, derived from the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), move with broader economic trends. [23]

Discounted Cash Flow 64

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Marketability EBITDA 64

Reynolds Holding

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

In the United States, the cost of capital is lower than elsewhere. NYU Business School Professor Damoradans widely used valuation data, for example, currently shows the United States as having among the lowest equity risk premiums in the world. [3] 4] Building on a foundation of independence, U.S.

Systematic Risk 45

Systematic Risk Marketability Equity Risk Premium 45

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

It is for this reason that I chose to compute returns differently, using the following constructs: I included all publicly traded stocks in each market, or at least those with a market capitalization available for them. I converted all of the market capitalizations into US dollars , just to make them comparable.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 67

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.

Start-ups 130

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 130