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Market Resilience or Investors In Denial? A Mid-year Assessment for 2023!

Musings on Markets

Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about risk capital that spilled across markets and asset classes. that was lost last year.

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Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!

Musings on Markets

The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board.

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Data Update 3: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets

Corporate Bonds: No Shortage of Risk Capital In my last post, I chronicled the movement in the equity risk premium, i.e. the price of risk in the equity market, during 2021, but the bond market has its own, and more measurable, price of risk in the form of corporate default spreads.

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Interest Rates, Earning Growth and Equity Value: Investment Implications

Musings on Markets

Interest Rates and Value As interest rates have risen, the discussion in markets has turned ito the effects that these rates will have on stock prices. Risk premiums No effect or even a decrease. Risk premia may rise as inflation increases, because higher inflation is almost always more volatile than low inflation.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

I do believe that too much is often made of these differences, as it is generally more the rule than the exception that markets, when they are up strongly, get the bulk of that rise from a small sub-set of stocks or sectors. The results are similar if you break stocks down based upon price to book ratios or revenue growth rates.

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Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table!

Musings on Markets

These assertions may very well be true, but cheap and expensive, at least in pricing terms, is relative, and looking at the data can help you detect rules of thumb that work from those that do not. Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with market capitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world.

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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

Consider, for instance, an investor who picks stocks based upon price to book ratios, who finds a stock trading at a price to book ratio of 1.5. While some of the companies in this data trace their existence back decades, there is a healthy proportion of younger companies, many in emerging markets and new industries.