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No matter how you slice it, there is no denying that 2022 was the worst year for US equity investors since 2008, and the magnitude of the damage is even more staggering, if you consider it in market value terms. trillion in marketcapitalization, but for balance, it is also worth noting that US equities are still holding on to a gain of $6.9
I have also developed a practice in the last decade of spending much of January exploring what the data tells us, and does not tell us, about the investing, financing and dividend choices that companies made during the most recent year. Beta & Risk 1. Equity RiskPremiums 2. Return on (invested) capital 2.
Check rules of thumb : Investing and corporate finance are full of rules of thumb, many of long standing. When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (riskpremiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage.
While the universe of companies is diverse, with approximately half of all firms from emerging markets, it is more concentrated in marketcapitalization, with the US accounting for 40% of global marketcapitalization at the start of the year. Macro Data I do not report much macroeconomic data for two reasons.
The graph below contains Tesla's stock price, adjusted for stock splits, going back to 2010, and ending in November 2021: While the graph illustrates the surge in the stock price, the table embedded in the graph conveys the rise more vividly, by listing Tesla's marketcapitalization in millions of dollars. for mature markets.
I do believe that too much is often made of these differences, as it is generally more the rule than the exception that markets, when they are up strongly, get the bulk of that rise from a small sub-set of stocks or sectors.
After all, I have lived much of my professional life in financial markets, where we have always had access to lots of data and market prices are set by crowds of investors. Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a marketcapitalization that exceeds zero.
The second is that borrowing money will increase perceived default risk, and if the company is rated, lower ratings, and that too is true, but borrowing money at a BBB rating, with the tax benefit incorporated, might still yield a lower cost of funding that staying at a AA rating, with no debt in use. Do companies optimize financing mix?
In corporate finance and investing, which are areas that I work in, I find myself doing double takes as I listen to politicians, market experts and economists making statements about company and market behavior that are fairy tales, and data is often my weapon for discerning the truth.
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to riskpremiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. In this role, the cost of capital is an opportunity cost, measuring returns you can earn on investments on equivalent risk.
Since the companies involved in building the AI infrastructure are the ones that are most tangibly (and immediately) benefiting from the AI boom, they are also the companies that have seen the biggest boost in market cap, as the AI story heated up.
Thus, my estimates of equity riskpremiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.
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