Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

In the graph below, I look at the 10-year US T.Bond rate and the 10-year TIPs rate on a monthly basis, going back to the start of 2003, when TIPs started trading: The advantage of using interest rates to forecast inflation is that it not only is constantly updated to reflect real world events, but also because there is money riding on these bets.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board. to 25% for the Eurozone.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 18, 2025

While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first is that if markets are efficient, the price to book ratios will reflect the quality of these companies. Even with this very simplistic example, there are useful implications.

Equity 52

Equity Book Value Marketability Start-ups 52