Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2023

The Markets in the Third Quarter Coming off a year of rising rates in 2022, interest rates have continued to command center stage in 2023. At the start of October, the ten-year and thirty-year rates were both approaching 15-year highs, with the 10-year treasury at 4.59% and the 30-year treasury rate at 4.73%.

Marketability 120

Marketability Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 120

Musings on Markets

JULY 13, 2022

Country Risk: Equity Risk For equity investors, the price of risk is captured by the equity risk premium, and equity risk premiums will vary across countries. Please do not attach any political significance to my country groupings, or take them personally.

Risk Premium 102

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 102

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

There are three possible explanations for the divergence: Short term versus Long term : The consumer survey extracts an expectation of inflation in the near term, whereas the treasury markets are providing a longer term perspective, since I am using ten-year rates to derive the market-implied inflation.

Risk Premium 102

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 102

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 20, 2024

While the Federal Open Market Committee controls the Fed Funds rate, there are a whole host of rates set by buyer and sellers in bond markets. In fact, in the quarters after the Fed Funds rate increases, US treasury rates (short and long term) are more likely to decrease than increase, and the median change in rates is negative.

Banking 122

Banking Treasury Start-ups Marketability 122

Brian DeChesare

FEBRUARY 28, 2024

While everyone seems to know about equity research and trading stocks, fixed income research gets far less attention. Equity Research vs. Fixed Income Research Common Myths What Do You Do as a Fixed Income Research Analyst or Associate? a credit rating vs. an investment recommendation). closer to the work at a quant fund ).

Equity 59

Equity Banking Start-ups Finance 59

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. The Fed Effect: Where's the beef?

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Risk Premiums : You cannot make informed financial decisions, without having measures of the price of risk in markets, and I report my estimates for these values for both debt and equity markets. I extend my equity risk premium approach to cover other countries, using sovereign default spreads as my starting point, at this link.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

Looking at US equities, the S&P 500 is up about 11% and the NASDAQ about 5%, from start of the year levels, and the underperformance of the latter has led to a wave of stories about whether this is start of the long awaited comeback of value stocks, after a decade of lagging growth stocks.

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Valutico

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Ce = Cost of Equity. Rf = Risk-free Rate. Rm – Rf) = Equity Market Risk Premium. Cp = Cost of Equity Premium. Ce = Cost of Equity. E = Equity . t = Tax Rate. Depending on the exact methodology and discount rate used, this could be the Enterprise Value or Equity Value.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Weighted Average Cost of Capital Net Present Value 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Just to illustrate the contradictions that can result, PRS gives Libya a country risk score that is higher (safer) than the scores it gives United States or France, putting them at odds with most other services that rank Libya among the riskiest countries in the world.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 126

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 126

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

In this post, I will begin by looking at movements in treasury rates, across maturities, during 2024, and the resultant shifts in yield curves. I will follow up by examining changes in corporate bond rates, across the default ratings spectrum, trying to get a measure of how the price of risk in bond markets changed during 2024.

Banking 69

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 69

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

The results, broken down broadly by geography are in the table below: As you can see, the aggregate market cap globally was up 12.17%, but much of that was the result of a strong US equity market. I am no expert on exchange rates, but learning to deal with different currencies in valuation is a prerequisite to valuing companies.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 67