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Market Resilience or Investors In Denial? A Mid-year Assessment for 2023!

Musings on Markets

In my second data update post from the start of this year , I looked at US equities in 2022, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% during the year and the NASDAQ, overweighted in technology, feeling even more pain, down about a third, during the year. US Equities in 2023: Into the Weeds! that was lost last year.

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Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!

Musings on Markets

In this section, I will begin by looking at the bond market effects and then move on to equities and other asset classes, starting by looking at the localized reaction (for Ukranian and Russian securities) and then the global ripple effects. As Russian equities have imploded, the ripple effects again are being felt across the globe.

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Interest Rates, Earning Growth and Equity Value: Investment Implications

Musings on Markets

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. Those rates stayed low through the rest of 2020, even as equity markets recovered and corporate bond spreads fell back to pre-crisis levels. to close to zero, and the ten-year T.Bond rate declining to close to 0.70%.

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Data Update 3: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets

Corporate Bonds: No Shortage of Risk Capital In my last post, I chronicled the movement in the equity risk premium, i.e. the price of risk in the equity market, during 2021, but the bond market has its own, and more measurable, price of risk in the form of corporate default spreads.

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Inflation and Investing: False Alarm or Fair Warning?

Musings on Markets

Looking at US equities, the S&P 500 is up about 11% and the NASDAQ about 5%, from start of the year levels, and the underperformance of the latter has led to a wave of stories about whether this is start of the long awaited comeback of value stocks, after a decade of lagging growth stocks.

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The Zomato IPO: A Bet on Big Markets and Platforms!

Musings on Markets

Uber's ownership in Zomato is a result of Zomato's acquisition of Uber Eats India, where Uber received a share of Zomato's equity in exchange. The second is the cost of capital, a number that most valuation classes and books (including mine) belabor to the point of diminishing returns.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

In this post, I will begin with a historical assessment of stock returns in the recent past, then move on to evaluate the returns that investors can expect to make, given how they are priced at the start of 2022, and end with a do-it-yourself valuation of the index right now. The year that was.