Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of the losses from 2022. increase in market capitalization.

Risk Premium 79

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Treasury 79

Musings on Markets

MAY 20, 2022

In my last post , I discussed how inflation's return has changed the calculus for investors, looking at how inflation affects returns on different asset classes, and tracing out the consequences for equity values, in the aggregate.

Price to Book 102

Price to Book Dividends Beta Equity 102

Value Scope

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The Value of X X, formerly Twitter, is now valued at $19 billion, according to the company’s employee equity compensation plan. The company’s revenue growth has slowed in recent quarters, and it has struggled to keep up with its competitors. Several factors may have contributed to the valuation drop.

Business Valuation 130

Business Valuation Start-ups Market Capitalization Marketability 130

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Since I am lucky enough to have access to databases that carry data on all publicly traded stocks, I choose all publicly traded companies, with a market price that exceeds zero, as my universe, for computing all statistics. Consequently, I do report industry averages for the two fastest growing emerging markets in India and China.

Dividends 105

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 105

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

Second, they have all been in the news in the last few weeks, with Starbucks getting a new CEO, Walgreens announcing that they will be shutting down hundreds of their stores and Intel coming up in the Nvidia conversation, often as a contrast.

Start-ups 132

Start-ups Marketability Market Capitalization Equity 132

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 12, 2022

In the midst of all the action, to no one's surprise, have been six stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Apple and Microsoft or FANGAM) that have largely driven US equities for the last decade, roiling the market with their most recent earnings reports.

Market Capitalization 103

Market Capitalization Equity Marketability Start-ups 103

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 5, 2024

That drop of more than $200 billion in market capitalization in response to what looked like good news, at least on the surface, puzzled market observers, though, as is their wont, they had found a reason by day end.

Marketability 133

Marketability Start-ups Discounted Cash Flow Market Capitalization 133

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 12, 2023

The effect of impact investing in the inclusionary and exclusionary paths is through the stock price , with the buying (selling) in inclusionary (exclusionary) investing pushing stock prices up (down), which, in turn, decreases (increases) the costs of equity and capital at these firms. in the 1998-2010 time period to 5.95

Market Capitalization 103

Market Capitalization Enterprise Value Start-ups Marketability 103

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2022

In this post, I will look at corporate profitability, in all its different dimensions, and how companies across the globe, and across industries, measured up in the most recent years. As companies from around the globe look to Asia for growth, the ensuing competition is pushing margins down there, relative to the rest of the world.

Start-ups 98

Start-ups Equity Book Value Marketability 98

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The arrival of the COVID in February 2020, and the ensuing market meltdown, causing treasury rates to plummet across the spectrum, with three-month T.bill rates dropping from 1.5% for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 5, 2023

The overarching questions for us all are whether this crisis will spread to the rest of the economy and market, as it did in 2008, and how banking as a business, at least in the US, will be reshaped by this crisis, and while I am more a dabbler than an expert in banking, I am going to try answering those questions.

Banking 97

Banking Equity Start-ups Treasury 97

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. First, I learned that the company was capable of generating growth much more efficiently, and more flexibly, than other auto companies, reducing the capital investment needed for growth.

Start-ups 124

Start-ups Marketability Market Capitalization Equity 124

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Investors, used to a decade of better-than-expected earnings and rising stock prices at these companies, have been blindsided by unexpected bad news in earnings reports, and have knocked down the market capitalization of these companies by hundreds of billions of dollars in the last few weeks.

Start-ups 105

Start-ups Market Capitalization Marketability Dividends 105

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 6, 2023

After a buzzy open, when the stock jumped from its offering price of $30 a share to $42, the stock has quickly given up those gains and now trades at below to its offer price.

Intangible Assets 125

Intangible Assets Book Value Equity Start-ups 125

Reynolds Holding

OCTOBER 21, 2024

What GameStop put on display was how much has changed—in technology and business models—since 2005 when we last comprehensively updated our equity market rules. The markets have moved to overwhelmingly trade electronically, with transaction volume in listed equities tripling in the last 17 years. [3]

Equity 45

Equity Marketability Start-ups Treasury 45

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

By the end of 2021, it was clear that this bout of inflation was not as transient a phenomenon as some had made it out to be, and the big question leading in 2022, for investors and markets, is how inflation will play out during the year, and beyond, and the consequences for stocks, bonds and currencies.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Musings on Markets

JUNE 23, 2023

I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well this year, in a market that has been top-heavy and tech-driven, and one big reason is that it contains both NVIDIA and Microsoft, two companies that have benefited from the AI story. Sustained Profitability, with Cycles!

Start-ups 103

Start-ups Marketability Market Capitalization Technology 103

Musings on Markets

MAY 7, 2023

In this post, I will begin by looking at how to value banks and follow up with an examination of investor views of banking have changed, by looking at pricing, before examining divergences in how banks are priced in the market today. All Equity, All the time!

Banking 82

Banking Price to Book Dividends Book Value 82

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

The automobile business has been in trouble for quite a while, struggling with anemic revenue growth in the aggregate, and abysmal profit margins, with even the very best in the group struggling to earn returns that match, let alone beat, their costs of capital. In sum, the company's market cap has risen from $2.8

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Valutico

JANUARY 17, 2023

The company has a leading position in the Southeast Asian market with their e-commerce platform Shoppee and their gaming offers by Garena. Sea currently has a market capitalization of $29.8 billion and $327 million respectively, up 39% and 141% year-on-year. As market sentiment changed globally during 2022, Sea Ltd.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2021

Since so much of Paytm’s success has been driven by the rise if smart phone usage among Indian consumers, and the concurrent rise in mobile payments for goods and services, I will start with a review of that rise, before looking at how Paytm has put itself in position to take advantage of that market shift.

Start-ups 95

Start-ups Banking Marketability Technology 95

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. Why stories matter in a numbers world If you are a numbers valuation, you start with some advantages.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Marketability Market Capitalization Technology 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

If you start enumerating every risk a business is exposed to, you will find yourself being overwhelmed by that list, and it is for that reason that I categorize risk into the groupings that I described in an earlier post on risk.

Risk Premium 76

Risk Premium Start-ups Beta Marketability 76

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. That is not true!

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 10, 2021

One of the big news stories of last week was Jack Dorsey stepping down as CEO of Twitter, and the market's response to that news was to push up Twitter's stock price by almost 10%. In this section, I will begin by looking at the mythology behind this push, and why it does not hold up to common sense questioning.

Start-ups 98

Start-ups Marketability Technology Market Capitalization 98

Valutico

DECEMBER 4, 2023

Many Netflix originals prove to be performing well which is part of the reason why they expect their Q4 revenue to be $8.7B, up 11% year-over-year. Stock Market Implications In the recent past, most notably in 2020 and 2021, Netflix experienced considerable growth in the stock market. Youtube), Apple Inc. Amazon Prime Video).

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow EBIT Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Equilest

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

Get started now for free and unlock the power of Equitest to make informed decisions about your business's financial future. Register here to start using Equitest today. Get started now for free and unlock the power of Equitest by registering here.

Business Valuation 40

Business Valuation Discounted Cash Flow Book Value Liquidation Value 40

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

The first of the is as companies scale up, there will be a point where they will hit a growth wall, and their growth will converge on the growth rate for the economy. In short, I am assuming that the price cuts and cost pressures of the fourth quarter are more representative of what Tesla will face in the future, as competition steps up.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Risk Premium 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

That may reflect the concern that once a person or entity starts borrowing to fund its needs, it is easy to overuse debt, and risk its wellbeing in the process. To fund the business, you can either use borrowed money (debt) or owner's funds (equity), and while both are sources of capital, they represent different claims on the business.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 10, 2023

We will then follow up with a framework for thinking about how key people can affect the value of a business, with practical suggestions on valuing and pricing key people. We will end with a discussion of how enterprises try, with mixed effects, to build protections against the loss of key personnel.

Key Person Discount 128

Key Person Discount Start-ups Price to Book Marketability 128

Musings on Markets

APRIL 21, 2022

In the years since, those user numbers have grown, as can be seen in the chart below: In keeping with disclosure practices at other user-based companies, in 2017, Twitter also started tracking and reporting the users who were most active on its platform, by looking at daily usage, and counting daily active users (DAU).

Start-ups 113

Start-ups Marketability Technology Market Capitalization 113

Global Finance

MAY 8, 2024

rise in return on equity (ROE) to 14.2%; and gains in tier 1 equity capital and assets of 5% and 4%, respectively. The NIM at Japan’s three largest banks hit 56 bps, the highest since the BOJ started its negative interest rate regime in 2012. billion; a 2.3% MUFG demonstrated a solid commitment to shareholders last year.

Banking 52

Banking Dividends Start-ups Finance 52

Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 2, 2020

On Monday, November 16, Airbnb filed it’s preliminary prospectus with the SEC, starting the clock on its long awaited initial public offering. In this section, I will start with a brief history of the company, move on to reviewing its financials leading into 2020, and then look at how it has performed in 2020.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Market Capitalization 52

Reynolds Holding

APRIL 4, 2022

Seeing these ads reminded me that, in the lead-up to the financial crisis, subprime lender AmeriQuest advertised in the Super Bowl. The dot-com bubble burst, though, created significant tremors in our markets. As in other start-up fields, many projects likely could fail. It’s at the core of what makes markets work.

Marketability 65

Marketability Start-ups Banking Compliance 65

Chris Mercer

AUGUST 1, 2022

This 2008 version had information on 477 restricted stock transactions, up from 430 transactions in the 2004 version. There were 231 transactions after April 1997, when the SEC’s period of restriction was reduced from two years to one year (up from 182 transactions in the 2004 version). Conclusion.

Dividends 52

Dividends Appraisal Marketability Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 18, 2024

In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was considering a break-up of Alphabet, with the addendum that it would also be pushing for the company to share the data it collects across its multiple platforms with competitors. In oil, it was John D.

Start-ups 75

Start-ups Market Capitalization Marketability Technology 75