Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. Historical Context In my earlier post, I noted that US equity market performance in 2022 made it the seventh worst year in stock market history, if you go back to 1928.

Treasury 97

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 97

Valutico

FEBRUARY 27, 2024

The discount rate effectively encapsulates the risk associated with an investment; riskier investments attract a higher discount rate. Different types of discount rates such as risk-free rate, cost of equity, or cost of debt, are used contextually in financial analysis.

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Beta 52

Equilest

JULY 31, 2022

What is Beta in Finance, and why is it essential for a business valuation? Are you considering evaluating a business using an excel template without understanding Beta in Finance? In Finance - the beta represents how sensitive the stock price is concerning the market price change (index). Think again!

Beta 40

Beta Business Valuation Finance Discounted Cash Flow 40

Andrew Stolz

AUGUST 5, 2020

If an investor moves money from the risk-free asset into the stock market, they should expect to earn a return in excess of the risk-free rate, what is called an equity risk premium. These risks can be reduced through the diversification of a portfolio. How Do You Calculate the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Beta Weighted Average Cost of Capital Risk Premium 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

Check rules of thumb : Investing and corporate finance are full of rules of thumb, many of long standing. When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. Cost of Equity 1.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 80

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 80

Simply Treasury

AUGUST 2, 2022

DEBRA Proposal (« Debt-Equity Bias Reduction Allowance). In early May, the European Commission unveiled its proposal for a "DEBRA" (Debt-equity bias reduction allowance) Directive, aimed at encouraging companies to finance their investments with equity and capital contributions, instead of resorting to loans (bank or other).

Equity 52

Equity Risk Premium Banking Finance 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery.

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Andrew Stolz

AUGUST 6, 2020

The return on assets is determined by systematic factors such as changes in inflation , risk premiums, interest rates, etc. Investors construct portfolios with unsystematic risks, which are well-diversified to reduce total portfolio risk. In theory, arbitrage provides investors with a high chance of success. 1 + RP1 + ??2+

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Beta Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

In this post , I argued that one of the key dividing lines between the two groups was flexibility , with companies with more flexible investing, financing and dividend policies winning out over companies with more rigidity on those dimensions. for mature markets. What’s your story?

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

Corporate Finance : Corporate finance is the development of the first financial principles that govern how to run a business. It is that mission that makes corporate finance the ultimate big picture class, one that everyone (entrepreneurs, investors, analysts, business observers) should take. Of course, but with two caveats.

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Appraiser Newsroom

JUNE 4, 2024

Kevin holds an MBA in finance from Georgia State University and a Bachelors in Chemical Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology. Finance Professor | Pepperdine Graziadio Business School Craig R. Everett is a finance professor at the Pepperdine Graziadio Business School. a Software as a Service company.

Business Valuation 59

Business Valuation Intangible Assets Appraisal Finance 59

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. What is risk?

Risk Premium 121

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 121

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

If equity markets surprised us with their resilience in 2020, not just weathering a pandemic for the ages, but prospering in its midst, US equity markets, in particular, managed to find light even in the darkest news stories, and continued their rise through 2021. The year that was.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 1, 2022

And Consequences If you are wondering why you should care about risk capital's ebbs and flows, it is because you will feel its effects in almost everything you do in investing and business. That pullback has had its consequences, with equity risk premiums rising around the world.

Marketability 99

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

That said, it is my experience with markets that has also made me skeptical about the over selling of both notions, since we have an entire branch of finance (behavioral finance/economics) that has developed to explain how more data does not always lead to better decisions and why crowds can often be collectively wrong.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

To fund the business, you can either use borrowed money (debt) or owner's funds (equity), and while both are sources of capital, they represent different claims on the business. Even government-owned businesses fall under its umbrella, with the key difference being that equity is provided by the taxpayers.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Harvard Corporate Governance

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

Posted by Arthur Korteweg (USC), Stavros Panageas (UCLA), and Anand Systla (UCLA), on Monday, February 3, 2025 Editor's Note: Arthur Korteweg is an Associate Professor of Finance and Business Economics at USC Marshall School of Business, Stavros Panageas is a Professor of Finance at UCLA Anderson School of Management, and Anand Systla is a Ph.D.

Equity 157

Equity Risk Premium Finance Marketability 157

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

With stocks, I compute this pre-personal tax return at the start of every month, using the current level of index and expected cash flows to back out an internal rate of return; this is the basis for the implied equity risk premium.

Dividends 52

Dividends Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 24, 2024

After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my definition of a crisis.

Risk Premium 75

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups EBITDA 75

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 10, 2025

In corporate finance and investing, which are areas that I work in, I find myself doing double takes as I listen to politicians, market experts and economists making statements about company and market behavior that are fairy tales, and data is often my weapon for discerning the truth. Beta & Risk 1. Return on Equity 1.

Risk Premium 119

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups Corporate Finance 119

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. A few years ago, I wrote a paper for practitioners on the cost of capital , where I described the cost of capital as the Swiss Army knife of finance, because of its many uses.

Risk Premium 72

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 72

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 18, 2025

The first was the response that I received to my last data update , where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting returns on equity (capital) to costs of equity (capital) can yield a measure of excess returns.

Equity 52

Equity Book Value Marketability Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2025

There are strands of research in both behavioral finance and empirical studies that back up contrarian strategies, but as with everything to do with investing, it comes with caveats and constraints. Contrarian Investing: The Psychological Tests! In the abstract, it is easy to understand the appeal of contrarian investing.

Start-ups 135

Start-ups Price to Book Marketability Equity 135

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

2] Startups typically lack significant historical financial data, often operate with negative profits initially, rely heavily on private equity or venture capital rather than traditional bank loans, and face a much higher risk of failure. [1] This premium rises when perceived market risk increases. [27] 2] [15] [17].

Discounted Cash Flow 52

Discounted Cash Flow Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups 52

Reynolds Holding

MARCH 25, 2025

Investment companies have been compelled to finance banking clients of the insiders and companies in which they were personally interested. Division of Corporation Finance, Compliance and Disclosure Interpretations: Regulation 13D-G , amendments to Questions 103.11 Division of Corporation Finance, Staff Statement on Meme Coins (Feb.

Corporate Finance 45

Corporate Finance Finance Banking Marketability 45

Equidam

APRIL 22, 2025

Venture Capital (VC) Financing: This is perhaps the most common context. It determines the price per share, dictating how much equity founders concede in exchange for the capital raised. [3] 23] Equidam uses country-specific risk-free rates (10-year government bonds) and market risk premiums (sourced from Damodaran). [23]

Discounted Cash Flow 64

Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Value Marketability EBITDA 64

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2025

The value per share that I estimate for Nvidia dropped from $87 in September 2024 to $78 in January 2025, much of that change driven by the smaller AI chip market that comes out of the DeepSeek disruption (with the rest of the decline arising for higher riskfree rates and the equity risk premiums).

Start-ups 133

Start-ups Marketability Technology Risk Premium 133

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

The Debt Trade off As a prelude to examining the debt and equity tradeoff, it is best to first nail down what distinguishes the two sources of capital. To me, the key distinction between debt and equity lies in the nature of the claims that its holders have on cash flows from the business.

Equity 75

Equity EBITDA Risk Premium Gross Debt 75

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.

Start-ups 130

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 130

Global Finance

OCTOBER 29, 2024

Meghan Robson, head of US Credit Strategy for BNP Paribas, speaks to Global Finance about directional forecasts and what to expect post-election. Global Finance: What surprised you in 2024? We would see high yields in the leveraged finance markets much more vulnerable in that situation. For now, there’s a positive outlook.

Start-ups 98

Start-ups Finance Equity Private Equity Firm 98