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Step 4: Discount the Dividends and Terminal Value to Present Value and Add Them This is like the final step of a DCF, but you use the Cost of Equity since the Dividend Discount Model is based on Equity Value, not EnterpriseValue. Note that there is no Equity Value to EnterpriseValue bridge here.
When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (riskpremiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on riskpremiums for both equity and debt. Debt breakdown 2.
The macro variables that I track on my site relate to the price of risk, a key input into valuation, in both equity and debt markets: US Equity RiskPremiums : The equity riskpremium is the price of risk in equity markets.
Rf = Risk-free Rate. Rm – Rf) = Equity Market RiskPremium. Cp = Cost of Equity Premium. Discount the Terminal Value. . Add up all the figures you have to arrive at the Net Present Value. Depending on the exact methodology and discount rate used, this could be the EnterpriseValue or Equity Value.
We note that the higher the expected rate (in other words, the greater the risk is perceived as necessary, to the point of requiring a substantial "riskpremium"), the lower the multiple that will apply and therefore the lower valuation: we buy cheaper which is less safe. 11% per year. 10% per year. RCAI, RN, CIF.
An Optimizing Tool In my second and third data posts for this year, I chronicled the effects of rising interest rates and riskpremiums on costs of equity and capital. In computing the latter, I used the current debt ratios for firms, but made no attempt to evaluate whether these mixes were "right" or not.
Raising or lowering the cost of capital has an effect on value, but changing my assumptions about riskpremiums, betas or debt ratios has a much smaller effect that changing assumptions that alter cash flows.
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity riskpremiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in riskpremiums, i.e., my definition of a crisis.
The logical step in looking across countries is measuring risk in countries, and bringing that risk into your analysis, by incorporating that risk by demanding higher expected returns in riskier countries. The answers, to you, may seem obvious, but I find it useful to organize the obvious into buckets for analysis.
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