Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

To fill in the missing pieces, I redid the valuation picture, adding the revenue growth rate, by year: Download spreadsheet As you look at the sheet, it is worth emphasizing a few estimation details that you may have missed in my original post: First, the revenue growth rate , at least for me, is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

I report a dataset containing annual returns on stocks, going back to 1928 , and to put 2021 in context, I looked at the historical returns on the index: Download historical returns on US stocks Looking at the 94 years in this dataset, the returns in 2021 would have ranked 20th on the list , good, but not exceptional.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The overriding message in all of this data is that Russia/Ukraine war has unleashed fears in the bond market, and once unleashed that fear has pushed up worries about default and default risk premia across the board.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a market capitalization that exceeds zero. For debt markets, it takes the form of default spreads, and I report the latest estimates of these corporate bond spreads at this link.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

Risk premiums No effect or even a decrease. Risk premia may rise as inflation increases, because higher inflation is almost always more volatile than low inflation. Download data While the chart itself has too much noise to draw conclusions, the correlations that I have calculated provide more information.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

In this section, I will lay out a mechanism for evaluating the effects of borrowing on the cost of funding a business, i.e., the cost of capital, and talk about why firms may under or overshoot this optimal. In fact, at a zero percent tax rate, the optimal debt ratio, if you define it as the mix that minimizes cost of capital is zero.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 127

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 127

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 10, 2025

Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity risk premiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.

Risk Premium 119

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups Corporate Finance 119

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.

Risk Premium 72

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 72

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

It is for this reason that I chose to compute returns differently, using the following constructs: I included all publicly traded stocks in each market, or at least those with a market capitalization available for them. I converted all of the market capitalizations into US dollars , just to make them comparable.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 67

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.

Start-ups 130

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 130