Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2023

I looked at global equities, broken down by region of the world, and in US dollars, to allow for direct comparison: India is the only region of the world to post positive returns, in US dollar terms, in the third quarter, and is the best performing market of the year, running just ahead of the US; note again that of the $5.2

Marketability 121

Marketability Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 121

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

In my second data update post from the start of this year , I looked at US equities in 2022, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% during the year and the NASDAQ, overweighted in technology, feeling even more pain, down about a third, during the year. US Equities in 2023: Into the Weeds! that was lost last year.

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. Download data US Treasury rates rose across all maturities, but more so at the short end of the term structure (3 months, 1 year and 2 year) than at the long end (10 year or 30 year).

Treasury 97

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 97

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Beta & Risk 1. Return on Equity 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Costs of equity & capital 4. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Costs of equity & capital 1.

Dividends 105

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 105

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

That said, the three primary inflation indices in the US, the CPI, the PPI and the GDP deflator all told the same story in 2021: Download historical inflation numbers The inflation rate during the course of the year reached levels not seen in close to 40 years, with every price index registering a surge.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery.

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 10, 2021

Cost of raising funds (capital) : Since the funds that are invested by a business come from equity investors and lenders, one way in which the hurdle rate is computed is by looking at how much it costs the investing company to raise those funds. Download country ERPs What does this mean? as mature markets. for Ford).

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

It is to remedy this defect that analysts scale profits to invested capital, with equity and capital variants: In the equity version, you divide net income by book equity to estimate a return on equity, a measure of what equity investors are generating on the capital they have invested in a company.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

In its early years, Tesla was dependent on equity issuances for funding growth investments, and its liberal use of options to reward management (and especially Elon Musk) opened it up to criticism. The Market : The US equity market in January 2023 looks very different from the market at the start of 2022. per share in 2022.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 99

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

Risk : When I valued Tesla last in early 2020, I used a cost of capital of 7%, reflecting a risk free rate of 1.75% and an equity risk premium of 5.2% Rather than take issue with my valuation, put your inputs into the attached spreadsheet and estimate your value of equity for the firm. for mature markets.

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

To fill in the missing pieces, I redid the valuation picture, adding the revenue growth rate, by year: Download spreadsheet As you look at the sheet, it is worth emphasizing a few estimation details that you may have missed in my original post: First, the revenue growth rate , at least for me, is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 22, 2021

History and Business Model Zomato was founded in 2008 by Deepinder Goyal and Pankaj Chaddah, as Foodiebay, in response to the difficulties that they noticed that their office mates were having in downloading menus for restaurants. billion), translating into a value per share of 41 INR.

Marketability 99

Marketability Start-ups Equity Price to Book 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

Last week, was my data week, where I download and analyze data on all publicly traded companies, listed anywhere in the world, and I will post extensively on what the numbers look like after a most tumultuous year. As we approach the turn of the calendar year, I have my own set of rituals that prepare me for the new year.

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

If equity markets surprised us with their resilience in 2020, not just weathering a pandemic for the ages, but prospering in its midst, US equity markets, in particular, managed to find light even in the darkest news stories, and continued their rise through 2021. The year that was.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound.

Risk Premium 121

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 121

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Just to illustrate the contradictions that can result, PRS gives Libya a country risk score that is higher (safer) than the scores it gives United States or France, putting them at odds with most other services that rank Libya among the riskiest countries in the world.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 27, 2022

grow at the cost of equity), yielding about ?46 The effects of inflation show up first as higher risk free rates , across currencies, and next in higher risk premiums, with both equity risk premiums and default spreads rising. higher (i.e., 46 in July 2022. 2% from my IPO valuation.

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 98

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

In this section, I will begin by looking at the bond market effects and then move on to equities and other asset classes, starting by looking at the localized reaction (for Ukranian and Russian securities) and then the global ripple effects. As Russian equities have imploded, the ripple effects again are being felt across the globe.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. Those rates stayed low through the rest of 2020, even as equity markets recovered and corporate bond spreads fell back to pre-crisis levels. Risk premiums No effect or even a decrease.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Risk Premiums : You cannot make informed financial decisions, without having measures of the price of risk in markets, and I report my estimates for these values for both debt and equity markets. You can find the data to download on my website , at this link.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

To fund the business, you can either use borrowed money (debt) or owner's funds (equity), and while both are sources of capital, they represent different claims on the business. Even government-owned businesses fall under its umbrella, with the key difference being that equity is provided by the taxpayers.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 127

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 127

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

With stocks, I compute this pre-personal tax return at the start of every month, using the current level of index and expected cash flows to back out an internal rate of return; this is the basis for the implied equity risk premium.

Dividends 52

Dividends Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 24, 2024

After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my definition of a crisis.

Risk Premium 75

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups EBITDA 75

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 10, 2025

Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity risk premiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.

Risk Premium 119

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups Corporate Finance 119

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. In this role, the cost of capital is an opportunity cost, measuring returns you can earn on investments on equivalent risk.

Risk Premium 72

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 72

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

Using a different lexicon, the price of risk in the bond market decreased during the course of the year, and if you relate that back to my second data update, where I computed a price of risk for equity markets (the equity risk premium), you can see the parallels.

Banking 69

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 69

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

The results, broken down broadly by geography are in the table below: As you can see, the aggregate market cap globally was up 12.17%, but much of that was the result of a strong US equity market. That process of risk analysis and estimating risk premiums starts by understanding why some countries are riskier than others.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 67

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.

Start-ups 130

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 130