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Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about risk capital that spilled across markets and asset classes.
These assertions may very well be true, but cheap and expensive, at least in pricing terms, is relative, and looking at the data can help you detect rules of thumb that work from those that do not. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on riskpremiums for both equity and debt. Price to Book 3.
Consider, for instance, an investor who picks stocks based upon price to book ratios, who finds a stock trading at a price to book ratio of 1.5. In the same dataset where I compute historical equity riskpremiums, I report historical returns on corporate bonds in two ratings classes (Moody’s Aaa and Baa ratings).
When you augment this price change with the dividends on the index during 2021, the total return on the S&P 500 for 2021 was 28.47%. The results are similar if you break stocks down based upon price to book ratios or revenue growth rates.
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