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If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity riskpremiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. That said, I don't blame you, if are confused not only about how I estimate this premium, but what it measures.
The other is the dangerous notion that measuring risk is the same as managing that risk and, in some cases, the even more insane view that it removes that risk. In corporatefinance, this takes the form of a hurdle rate , a minimum acceptable return on an investment, for it to be funded.
The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors. That view has never made sense, because central banking power over rates is at the margin, and the key fundamental drivers of rates are expected inflation and real growth.
Note also that during 2022 and 2023, the movements in these government bond rates mimic the US treasuries, rising strongly in 2022 and declining or staying stable in 2023. Corporate Borrowing As riskfree rates fluctuate, they affect the rates at which private businesses can borrow money.
CorporateFinance : Corporatefinance is the development of the first financial principles that govern how to run a business. It is that mission that makes corporatefinance the ultimate big picture class, one that everyone (entrepreneurs, investors, analysts, business observers) should take.
In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a riskfree investment? Why does the risk-freerate matter?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity riskpremiums, default spreads, riskfreerates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.
The consensus can be wrong : A few months ago, I made the mistake of watching Moneyheist, a show on Netflix, based upon its high audience ratings on Rotten Tomatoes , and as I wasted hours on this abysmal show, I got a reminder that crowds can be wrong, and sometimes woefully so.
In particular, there are wide variations in how risk is measured, and once measured, across companies and countries, and those variations can lead to differences in expected returns and hurdle rates, central to both corporatefinance and investing judgments.
In my corporatefinance class, I describe all decisions that companies make as falling into one of three buckets – investing decisions, financing decision and dividend decisions. Equity RiskPremiums 2. Ratings & Spreads 2. Tax rates 4. Financing Flows 5. Buybacks 2. Lease Effect 2.
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