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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

The results are similar if you break stocks down based upon price to book ratios or revenue growth rates. The Implied ERP - Start of 2022 I have computed the implied equity risk premium at the start of every month, since September 2008, and during crisis periods, I compute it every day.

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Market Resilience or Investors In Denial? A Mid-year Assessment for 2023!

Musings on Markets

Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about risk capital that spilled across markets and asset classes.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

Relative Risk Measures Before we embark on how to measure relative risk, where there can be substantial disagreement, let me start with a statement on which there should be agreement. By the same token, Embraer and TCS are global firms that happen to be incorporated in Brazil and India, respectively.

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Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?

Musings on Markets

Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Book Value Multiples 3. Working capital needs Thus, I compute pricing multiples based on revenues (EV to Sales, Price to Sales), earnings (PE, PEG), book value (PBV, EV to Invested Capital) or cash flow proxies (EV to EBITDA). Return on Equity 1. Debt Details 1.

Dividends 105
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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

In fact, the standard practice that most analysts and investors follow to estimate the risk free rate is to use the government bond rate, with the only variants being whether they use a short term or a long term rate. and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop.

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Precision in Valuation: Integrating the Beneish M-Score for Accurate Business Worth

Equilest

When combined, they can paint a picture of a company that might be cooking its books faster than a chef in a Michelin-starred kitchen. A high M-Score could indicate higher risk, warranting a higher discount rate and thus a lower valuation. It's like adding a risk premium, but based on hard data rather than gut feeling.

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Data Update 3: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets

Corporate Bonds: No Shortage of Risk Capital In my last post, I chronicled the movement in the equity risk premium, i.e. the price of risk in the equity market, during 2021, but the bond market has its own, and more measurable, price of risk in the form of corporate default spreads.