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Investors all talk about risk, but there seems to be little consensus on what it is, how it should be measured, and how it plays out in the short and long term. In closing, I will talk about some of the more dangerous delusions that undercut good risk taking. What is risk?
I have no particular insights to offer on physical risk, other than to note that while taking on physical risks for some has become a leisure activity, I have no desire to climb Mount Everest or jump out of an aircraft.
With limited features and formulas, it can be difficult to account for all the necessary parameters in a valuation, such as interest rates, equity riskpremiums, and beta. It lacks interest rates, equity riskpremiums, beta, and other important data. You can Sign up for free here.
When I started offering financial modeling training , I never expected to get questions about a methodology like the Dividend Discount Model (DDM). It can be useful for certain companies, such as power and utility firms and midstream (pipeline) operators in oil & gas … …but it’s also much harder to set up and use than a standard DCF.
I also start thinking about my passion, which is teaching, the spring semester to come, and the classes that I will be teaching, repeating a process that I have gone through every year since 1984, my first year as a teacher. Face up to uncertainty, rather than avoid or deny it : Uncertainty is a feature of investing/ business, not a bug.
It has been my practice for the last two decades to take a detailed look at how risk varies across countries, once at the start of the year and once mid-year. Country Risk: Default Risk and Ratings For investors, the most direct measures of country risk come from measures of their capacity to default on their borrowings.
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. That is not true!
In this post, I will start by looking at the role that hurdle rates play in running a business, with the consequences of setting them too high or too low, and then look at the fundamentals that should cause hurdle rates to vary across companies. More on that issue in a future data update post.)
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity riskpremiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.
That may reflect the concern that once a person or entity starts borrowing to fund its needs, it is easy to overuse debt, and risk its wellbeing in the process. An Optimizing Tool In my second and third data posts for this year, I chronicled the effects of rising interest rates and riskpremiums on costs of equity and capital.
Zomato, an Indian online food-delivery company, was opened up to public market investors on July 14, 2021, and its market debut is being watched for clues by a number of other online ventures in India, waiting in the wings to go public. The Zomato IPO clocks in at 420 pages , much of it designed to bore readers into submission.
Third, by making investing a choice between good (higher returns) and bad (higher risk), a message is sent, perhaps unwittingly, that risk is something to be avoided or hedged. micro uncertainties, into discount rates, and in the process, they end up incorporating risk that investors can eliminate, often at no cost.
First, these categorizations were created close to twenty years ago, when I first started looking a global data, and many countries that were emerging markets then have developed into more mature markets now. Beta & Risk 1. Equity RiskPremiums 2. Return on Equity 1. Debt Ratios & Fundamentals 1.
It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and running, and I plan to use this post to describe my data sample, my processes for computing industry statistics and the links to finding them. Beta & Risk 1. Equity RiskPremiums 2. Return on Equity 1. Debt Details 1.
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to riskpremiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity riskpremiums , and the latter by default spreads.
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