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When I started offering financial modeling training , I never expected to get questions about a methodology like the Dividend Discount Model (DDM). Otherwise, the written version follows: Why Use a Dividend Discount Model? If you sum up these numbers, you can see whether the company is valued appropriately.
In this post, I will start with a working definition of riskt that we can get some degree of agreement about, and then look at multiple measures of risk, both at the company and country level. In closing, I will talk about some of the more dangerous delusions that undercut good risk taking. What is risk?
Historical Data: 1930-2019 To see how this framework works in practice, let's start by looking at the performance of US stocks, across the decades, and look at the returns on stocks, broadly categorized based on market capitalization and price to book ratios.
But before delving into the best candidates for these roles, typical trades, careers, and more, let’s start with the basic definitions: What is a Convertible Arbitrage Hedge Fund? If the stock price goes up or down by 10%, but the volatility stays the same, you might not earn or lose anything on the trade.
I also start thinking about my passion, which is teaching, the spring semester to come, and the classes that I will be teaching, repeating a process that I have gone through every year since 1984, my first year as a teacher. Face up to uncertainty, rather than avoid or deny it : Uncertainty is a feature of investing/ business, not a bug.
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. That is not true!
In this post, I start by looking at the end game for businesses, and how that choice plays out in investment rules for these businesses, and then examine how much businesses generated in profits in 2023, scaled to both revenues and invested capital. The End Game in Business If you start a business, what is your end game?
But before delving into the exit opportunities and the long-term outlook, let’s start with the fundamentals: Oil & Gas Investment Banking Defined. Because the risk of searching for new energy sources and experimentally drilling is so high, many E&P firms set up joint ventures to distribute the risk.
I have also developed a practice in the last decade of spending much of January exploring what the data tells us, and does not tell us, about the investing, financing and dividend choices that companies made during the most recent year. Beta & Risk 1. Dividends and Potential Dividends (FCFE) 1. Return on Equity 1.
micro uncertainties, into discount rates, and in the process, they end up incorporating risk that investors can eliminate, often at no cost. He followed up by showing that holding diversified portfolios can deliver much higher returns, for given levels of risk, for all investors.
It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and running, and I plan to use this post to describe my data sample, my processes for computing industry statistics and the links to finding them. Beta & Risk 1. Dividends and Potential Dividends (FCFE) 1. Return on Equity 1.
In business financing decisions , the cost of capital becomes an optimizing tool , where businesses look for a mix of debt and equity that reduces the cost of capital , and where matching up the debt (in terms of currency and maturity) to the assets r educes default risk and the cost of capital. Corporate Default Risk , i.e,
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