Musings on Markets

MAY 7, 2023

I also used the banking framework to argue that good banks have stickier deposits, with a higher precent of these deposits being non-interest bearing, that they invest in loans and investment securities on which they earn interest rates that cover and exceed the default risk in these investments. All Equity, All the time!

Banking 82

Banking Price to Book Dividends Book Value 82

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

That does not surprise me, since I have never bought into the “Fed did it” theme, and have written multiple posts about why it is inflation and economic growth that drive interest rates, not central banks. trillion in market value in the first six months in the year , but the severity of last year's decline has still left them $14.4

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

While we have increasingly given central banks primacy in discussions of interest rates, it remains my view that markets set rates, and while central banks can nudge market expectations, they cannot alter them. Connecting this linkage to the discussion of US inflation in the prior sections, here are the takeaways.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

The table below summarizes the market cap change, by region of the world: It is no surprise that Eastern Europe and Russia, which are in the eye of the hurricane, have seen the most damage to equities, but other than the Middle East, every other equity market in the world is down, with the US, EU and China shedding significant market capitalization.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 10, 2023

In businesses like banking, consulting or the law, rainmakers can represent a significant portion of value, and their departure can be not just damaging but catastrophic. The value added by a superstar trader will be greater if he or she works at a ten-person trading group than if they work at a large investment bank.

Key Person Discount 128

Key Person Discount Start-ups Price to Book Marketability 128

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

Consider, for instance, an investor who picks stocks based upon price to book ratios, who finds a stock trading at a price to book ratio of 1.5. While some of the companies in this data trace their existence back decades, there is a healthy proportion of younger companies, many in emerging markets and new industries.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The second and more powerful factor is that the reason that a central bank is able to signal to markets, only if it has credibility, since the signal is more about what the Fed sees, using data that only it might have, about inflation and real growth in the future.

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52