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If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity riskpremiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. That said, I don't blame you, if are confused not only about how I estimate this premium, but what it measures.
The premium that investors demand over and above the riskfreerate is the equity riskpremium , and practitioners in finance have wrestled with how best to estimate that number, since it is not easily observable (unlike the expected return on a bond which manifests as a current market interest rate).
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