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As we approach the mid point of 2021, financial markets, for the most part, have had a good year so far. All of these measures, no matter how carefully designed, give a measure of inflation in the past, and markets are ultimately concerned more with inflation in the future.
In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.
Data has been better than we expected, not only in the labor market but also consumer spending remains very resilient. The market still expects that the Fed will be able to continue rate cuts at a regular cadence into next year. The risk looks a lot better, and all those reasons support the soft-landing thesis.
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