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Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about riskcapital that spilled across markets and asset classes. that was lost last year.
That positive result notwithstanding, the recovery was uneven, with a big chunk of the increase in marketcapitalization coming from seven companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, NVidia and Tesla) and wide divergences in performance across stocks, in performance. increase in marketcapitalization.
In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of marketcapitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.
It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and running, and I plan to use this post to describe my data sample, my processes for computing industry statistics and the links to finding them. In the table below, we compare the changes in regional marketcapitalizations (in $ millions) over time.
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to riskpremiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity riskpremiums , and the latter by default spreads.
trillion in value last week, a 9.24% decline in value from the Friday close on March 28, 2025. China and India have held up the best in the last week, perhaps because both countries have large enough domestic markets to sustain them through a trade war. trillion) were close in percentage terms to the losses in the rest of the market.
Since the companies involved in building the AI infrastructure are the ones that are most tangibly (and immediately) benefiting from the AI boom, they are also the companies that have seen the biggest boost in market cap, as the AI story heated up.
The February 18, 2025, Executive Order (Ensuring Accountability For All Agencies) threatens this balance. In the United States, the cost of capital is lower than elsewhere. capitalmarkets have grown ever larger over time, currently representing over $62 trillion in equity marketcapitalization up $11 trillion in 2024 alone.
It is for this reason that I chose to compute returns differently, using the following constructs: I included all publicly traded stocks in each market, or at least those with a marketcapitalization available for them. I converted all of the marketcapitalizations into US dollars , just to make them comparable.
Thus, my estimates of equity riskpremiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. That said, to value companies today, I have no choice but to bring in the economics and politics of the world that these companies inhabit.
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