2025 Dividends Risk Premium 
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 17, 2024
To capture the market's mood, I back out the expected return (and equity risk premium) that investors are pricing in, through an implied equity risk premium: Put simply, the expected return is an internal rate of return derived from the pricing of stocks, and the expected cash flows from holding them, and is akin to a yield to maturity on bonds.
Musings on Markets
JULY 17, 2023
Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about risk capital that spilled across markets and asset classes.
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Musings on Markets
JANUARY 17, 2025
In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 10, 2025
It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and running, and I plan to use this post to describe my data sample, my processes for computing industry statistics and the links to finding them. In the table below, we compare the changes in regional market capitalizations (in $ millions) over time.
Musings on Markets
FEBRUARY 8, 2025
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity risk premiums , and the latter by default spreads.
Musings on Markets
APRIL 7, 2025
trillion in value last week, a 9.24% decline in value from the Friday close on March 28, 2025. There was undoubtedly some panic selling on Friday, but the flight to safety, whether it be in moving into treasuries or high dividend paying stocks, was muted. US equities had the biggest decline in dollar value terms, losing $5.3
Musings on Markets
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
Equity is cheaper than debt: There are businesspeople (including some CFOs) who argue that debt is cheaper than equity, basing that conclusion on a comparison of the explicit costs associated with each interest payments on debt and dividends on equity. YouTube Video Data Updates for 2025 Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data!
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