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That positive result notwithstanding, the recovery was uneven, with a big chunk of the increase in marketcapitalization coming from seven companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, NVidia and Tesla) and wide divergences in performance across stocks, in performance. increase in marketcapitalization.
Since I am lucky enough to have access to databases that carry data on all publicly traded stocks, I choose all publicly traded companies, with a market price that exceeds zero, as my universe, for computing all statistics. Beta & Risk 1. Equity RiskPremiums 2. Return on (invested) capital 2. Debt Details 1.
No matter how you slice it, there is no denying that 2022 was the worst year for US equity investors since 2008, and the magnitude of the damage is even more staggering, if you consider it in market value terms. trillion in marketcapitalization, but for balance, it is also worth noting that US equities are still holding on to a gain of $6.9
When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (riskpremiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with marketcapitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world.
Finally, my starting cost of capital of 10.15% reflects the reality that the riskfree rate and equity riskpremiums have risen over 2022, and my ending number of 9% is an indication that I expect Tesla to become less risky over time. It was the reason that I argued at a $1.2
In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of marketcapitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.
Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity riskpremiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.
In percentage terms, energy stocks have lost the most in value, with marketcapitalizations dropping by 14.2%, dragged down by declining oil prices. trillion) were close in percentage terms to the losses in the rest of the market.
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to riskpremiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. The second set of inputs are prices of risk, in both the equity and debt markets, with the former measured by equity riskpremiums , and the latter by default spreads.
A little over a year later, in September 2024, that question about AI seemed to have been answered in the affirmative, for most investors, and I posted again after Nvidia had a disappointing earnings report , arguing that it reflected a healthy scaling down of expectations.
In the United States, the cost of capital is lower than elsewhere. NYU Business School Professor Damoradans widely used valuation data, for example, currently shows the United States as having among the lowest equity riskpremiums in the world. [3] 4] Building on a foundation of independence, U.S.
In this post, I will expand my analysis of data in 2024, which has a been mostly US-centric in the first four of my posts, and use that data to take you on my version of the Disney ride, but on this trip, I have no choice but to face the world as is, with all of the chaos it includes, with tariffs and trade wars looming.
Thus, my estimates of equity riskpremiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. Not only does the world tilt more authoritarian than democratic in 2024, the trend line indicates that the world is becoming less democratic over time.
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