Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis. Markets, as is their wont, live to surprise, and the first six months of 2023 has wrong-footed the experts (again).

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

These assertions may very well be true, but cheap and expensive, at least in pricing terms, is relative, and looking at the data can help you detect rules of thumb that work from those that do not. In January 2023, I ended up with 47,913 publicly traded firms in my sample , with the pie chart below providing a geographic breakdown.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

The results are similar if you break stocks down based upon price to book ratios or revenue growth rates. The Implied ERP - Start of 2022 I have computed the implied equity risk premium at the start of every month, since September 2008, and during crisis periods, I compute it every day.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99