Remove 2023 Remove Market Capitalization Remove Risk-free Rate
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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

No matter how you slice it, there is no denying that 2022 was the worst year for US equity investors since 2008, and the magnitude of the damage is even more staggering, if you consider it in market value terms. trillion in market capitalization, but for balance, it is also worth noting that US equities are still holding on to a gain of $6.9

Equity 72
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Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation

Musings on Markets

The first of the is as companies scale up, there will be a point where they will hit a growth wall, and their growth will converge on the growth rate for the economy. Lowering revenue growth to 15% in 2023 and raising it to 33% in 2024 will deliver almost the same value for the company, as what I get with my smoothed-out values.

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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).

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Data Update 1 for 2022: It is Moneyball Time!

Musings on Markets

Regional Breakdown My data sample for 2022 includes every publicly traded firm that is traded anywhere in the world, with a market capitalization that exceeds zero. I extend my equity risk premium approach to cover other countries, using sovereign default spreads as my starting point, at this link.

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Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?

Musings on Markets

Since I am lucky enough to have access to databases that carry data on all publicly traded stocks, I choose all publicly traded companies, with a market price that exceeds zero, as my universe, for computing all statistics. will reflect the most recent quarterly accounting filing. will reflect the most recent quarterly accounting filing.

Dividends 100