Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. In that post, I noted that if inflation subsided quickly, and the economy stayed out of a recession, stocks had upside, and that is the scenario that played out in 2023.

Risk Premium 79

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Treasury 79

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. The Fed Effect: Where's the beef?

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

In its early years, Tesla was dependent on equity issuances for funding growth investments, and its liberal use of options to reward management (and especially Elon Musk) opened it up to criticism. The Market : The US equity market in January 2023 looks very different from the market at the start of 2022. per share in 2022.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. In January 2023, I ended up with 47,913 publicly traded firms in my sample , with the pie chart below providing a geographic breakdown.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

Expected returns for Risky Investments : The risk-free rate becomes the base on which you build to estimate expected returns on all other investments. For instance, if you read my last post on equity risk premiums , I described the equity risk premium as the additional return you would demand, over and above the risk free rate.

Risk-free Rate 98

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Beta & Risk 1. Return on Equity 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Costs of equity & capital 4. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Costs of equity & capital 1.

Dividends 105

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 105

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

billion in gross profit in the last twelve months leading into 2023, but operating income drops off to $6.4 Finally, I look at the aggregated values across all companies on all three income measures, across all global companies, again broken down by sector: Collectively, global companies reported $16.9 billion and need income is only $4.3

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 80

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 80

Simply Treasury

AUGUST 2, 2022

DEBRA Proposal (« Debt-Equity Bias Reduction Allowance). In early May, the European Commission unveiled its proposal for a "DEBRA" (Debt-equity bias reduction allowance) Directive, aimed at encouraging companies to finance their investments with equity and capital contributions, instead of resorting to loans (bank or other).

Equity 52

Equity Risk Premium Banking Finance 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

Finally, my starting cost of capital of 10.15% reflects the reality that the riskfree rate and equity risk premiums have risen over 2022, and my ending number of 9% is an indication that I expect Tesla to become less risky over time. and 10.9%.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Appraiser Newsroom

JUNE 4, 2024

He was a on the Board of Trustees of the International Valuation Standards Council finishing his second term in 2023. He is a frequent presenter on valuation topics, and is currently a subject matter expert on the Appraisal Foundation’s working group preparing a Valuation Advisory on the Company-Specific Risk Premium.

Business Valuation 59

Business Valuation Intangible Assets Appraisal Finance 59

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. Globally, health care has the highest percentage of money-losing companies and utilities have the lowest.

Risk Premium 121

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 121

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

For three decades, China has won this battle, but in 2023, the battleground seems to be shifting in favor of India, but it is still too early to make a judgment on whether this is a long term change, or just a hiccup.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

If equity markets surprised us with their resilience in 2020, not just weathering a pandemic for the ages, but prospering in its midst, US equity markets, in particular, managed to find light even in the darkest news stories, and continued their rise through 2021. The year that was.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

In this post, I will focus on corporate debt in 2023, keeping in mind that it was a year where the tradeoffs changed, as interest rates rose to pre-2008 levels, and putting at risk those firms that had borrowed to capacity, or even beyond, at low interest rates.

Equity 52

Equity EBITDA Start-ups Net Debt 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Risk Premiums : You cannot make informed financial decisions, without having measures of the price of risk in markets, and I report my estimates for these values for both debt and equity markets. I am not, and have no desire to be, a data service, and will not be updating until the start of 2023.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Minuses : As in the last approach, you still have to estimate a probability that a catastrophe will occur, and in addition, and there can be challenges in estimating the value of a business, if the company fails in the face of catastrophic risk. 4 & 5 Uninsurable Risk. Note that these higher discount rates apply in both scenarios.

Risk Premium 76

Risk Premium Start-ups Beta Marketability 76

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 127

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 127

Musings on Markets

JULY 24, 2024

After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my definition of a crisis.

Risk Premium 75

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups EBITDA 75

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 10, 2025

Thus, as you peruse my historical data on implied equity risk premiums or PE ratios for the S&P 500 over time, you may be tempted to compute averages and use them in your investment strategies, or use my industry averages for debt ratios and pricing multiples as the target for every company in the peer group, but you should hold back.

Risk Premium 119

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups Corporate Finance 119

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

I will follow up by examining changes in corporate bond rates, across the default ratings spectrum, trying to get a measure of how the price of risk in bond markets changed during 2024. They made a mild comeback in 2023 and that recovery continued in 2024.

Banking 69

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 69

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2025

I first posted about AI in the context of valuing Nvidia , in June 2023, when there was still uncertainty about whether AI had legs. That is partly why, I have shed portions of my holdings in Nvidia, selling half my holdings in the summer of 2023 and another quarter in the summer of 2024.

Start-ups 133

Start-ups Marketability Technology Risk Premium 133

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

The Debt Trade off As a prelude to examining the debt and equity tradeoff, it is best to first nail down what distinguishes the two sources of capital. To me, the key distinction between debt and equity lies in the nature of the claims that its holders have on cash flows from the business.

Equity 75

Equity EBITDA Risk Premium Gross Debt 75

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

I aggregated the market capitalizations of all stocks at the end of 2023 and the end of 2024, and computed the percentage change. The results, broken down broadly by geography are in the table below: As you can see, the aggregate market cap globally was up 12.17%, but much of that was the result of a strong US equity market.

Risk Premium 67

Risk Premium Start-ups Enterprise Value Equity 67

Musings on Markets

MARCH 15, 2025

Thus, my estimates of equity risk premiums, updated every month, are not designed to make big statements about markets but more to get inputs I need to value companies. of global GDP in 1995 to 3.96% in 2023 and the latter seeing its share dropping from 25.69% of global GDP in 1990 to 14.86%.

Start-ups 130

Start-ups Risk Premium Marketability Equity 130