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I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis. Markets, as is their wont, live to surprise, and the first six months of 2023 has wrong-footed the experts (again).
For example, I have seen it asserted that a stock that trades at less than bookvalue is cheap or that a stock that trades at more than twenty times EBITDA is expensive. In January 2023, I ended up with 47,913 publicly traded firms in my sample , with the pie chart below providing a geographic breakdown. Price to Book 3.
The January 2023 report ESG Performance and Enterprise Value: Do Firms with Stronger ESG Performance Have Higher Valuation Ratios? investigated the relationship between the ISS ESG Performance Score (a normalized version of the ISS ESG Corporate Rating ) and two valuation ratios from the ISS Economic Value Added (EVA) framework.
Consequently, you can only value the equity in a bank, and by extension, the only pricing multiples you can use to price banks are equity multiples (PE, Price to Book etc.).
Given the historical roots of the biggest Indian family groups, the Adani Group has been a recent entrant, not making the top ten list (in terms of either operating metrics like revenues or market-based numbers like market capitalization or enterprise value) as recently as ten years ago, and barely making the top ten list five or six years ago.
In the next section, I look at stock returns for companies in different price to book deciles, in a simplistic assessment of the value premium. With both the size and value premiums, I will extend my assessment over time to see how (and why) these premiums have changed, with lessons for analysts and investors.
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