Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors.

Treasury 97

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 97

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

It is precisely because we have been spoiled by a decade of low and stable inflation that the inflation numbers in 2021 and 2022 came as such a surprise to economists, investors and even the Fed.

Risk Premium 102

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 102

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Equity Dividends 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 11, 2023

In the month since, I have added two more data updates, one on US equities and one on interest rates , but my attention was drawn away by other interesting stories. It is also the aspect of country risk, where there is the longest history of measurement, and there are widely used measurement tools.

Risk Premium 97

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 97

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Beta & Risk 1. Return on Equity 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Ratings & Spreads 2. Tax rates 4. Costs of equity & capital 4. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1.

Dividends 105

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 105

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

Tesla's rise is summarized in the graph below, where we look at the company's revenues and earnings over time, with earnings measured in gross and operating terms, and EBITDA capturing operating cash flows: 2022 numbers updated to reflect 4th quarter earnings call on 1/25/23 Between 2010 and 2020, Tesla grew revenues from $117 million to $31.5

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 24, 2024

In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In fact, treasury bill rates consistently rise ahead of the Fed's actions over the two years.

Treasury 52

Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 20, 2024

The second was the drop in the Fed Funds rate to close to zero percent, first after the 2008 crisis and then again after the COVID shock in the first quarter of 2020. While the Federal Open Market Committee controls the Fed Funds rate, there are a whole host of rates set by buyer and sellers in bond markets.

Banking 124

Banking Treasury Start-ups Marketability 124

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

ThomsonReuters

JUNE 15, 2021

Use of Special purpose acquisition (SPAC) vehicles have spiked over the past year because private equity and venture capital firms have excess cash they need to put to work, accounting practitioners said mid-June. These standards require companies to assess whether the warrants should be equity or liability classified.

Risk-free Rate 64

Risk-free Rate Equity Start-ups Book Value 64

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

The first of the is as companies scale up, there will be a point where they will hit a growth wall, and their growth will converge on the growth rate for the economy. In short, I am assuming that the price cuts and cost pressures of the fourth quarter are more representative of what Tesla will face in the future, as competition steps up.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 27, 2022

At close of trading on July 26, 2022, the stock was trading at ? In this post, I will begin with a quick review of my 2021 valuation, then move on to the price action in 2021 and 2022 and then update my valuation to reflect the company's current numbers. grow at the cost of equity), yielding about ?46 46 in July 2022.

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings! In short, and at the risk of stating the obvious, having access to data is a benefit but it is not a panacea to every problem. Sometimes, less is more! It is also why I report only aggregated data on industries, rather than company-level data.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound.

Risk Premium 121

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 121

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

In 2022, North America and Western Europe scored highest on the democracy index, and Middle East and Africa scored the lowest. For three decades, I have wrestled with measuring this additional risk exposure and converting that measurement into an equity risk premium, but it remains a work in progress.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2025

In my last post , I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025.

Equity 127

Equity Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 127

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

I will follow up by examining changes in corporate bond rates, across the default ratings spectrum, trying to get a measure of how the price of risk in bond markets changed during 2024. Put simply, with or without the Fed, rates would have been low during the period.

Banking 69

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 69