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If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity riskpremiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. That said, I don't blame you, if are confused not only about how I estimate this premium, but what it measures.
By the start of 2022, the window for early action had closed and for much of this year, inflation has been the elephant in the room, driving markets and forcing central banks to be reactive, and its presence has already induced me to write three posts on its impact. in the NY Fed survey.
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term. at the start of that year.
In the first few weeks of 2022, we have had repeated reminders from the market that risk never goes away for good, even in the most buoyant markets, and that when it returns, investors still seem to be surprised that it is there.
While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of the losses from 2022. Energy, one of the few survivors of the 2022 market sell-off, had a bad year, as did utilities and consumer staples. The solid comeback in stocks, though, came with caveats.
It is precisely because we have been spoiled by a decade of low and stable inflation that the inflation numbers in 2021 and 2022 came as such a surprise to economists, investors and even the Fed.
In my second data update post from the start of this year , I looked at US equities in 2022, with the S&P 500 down almost 20% during the year and the NASDAQ, overweighted in technology, feeling even more pain, down about a third, during the year. That pessimism was not restricted to market outlooks.
I have also developed a practice in the last decade of spending much of January exploring what the data tells us, and does not tell us, about the investing, financing and dividend choices that companies made during the most recent year. Beta & Risk 1. Dividends and Potential Dividends (FCFE) 1. Equity RiskPremiums 2.
Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of riskpremiums. It is true that economists have researched risk aversion for centuries and concluded that investors are collectively risk averse, and that the level of risk aversion varies across age groups, income levels and time.
When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (riskpremiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on riskpremiums for both equity and debt. Goodwill & Impairment 4.
In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.
Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings! In short, and at the risk of stating the obvious, having access to data is a benefit but it is not a panacea to every problem. Sometimes, less is more! It is also why I report only aggregated data on industries, rather than company-level data.
Risk Differences across Countries In this final section, I will look risk differences across countries, both in terms of why risk varies across, as well as how these variations play out as equity riskpremiums.
The Taxation of Investment Income In much of the world, income from investments (interest, dividends) is treated differently than earned income (salary, wages), by the tax code, and the reasons for the divergence are both practical and political: 1.
In the graph below, I look at returns (inclusive of dividends) on the S&P 500 every year from 1928 to 2024. Historical Context To assess stock returns in 2024, it makes sense to step back and put the year's performance into historical perspective.
Equity is cheaper than debt: There are businesspeople (including some CFOs) who argue that debt is cheaper than equity, basing that conclusion on a comparison of the explicit costs associated with each interest payments on debt and dividends on equity.
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