Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

It is precisely because we have been spoiled by a decade of low and stable inflation that the inflation numbers in 2021 and 2022 came as such a surprise to economists, investors and even the Fed. Note that in all three cases, it is not the Fed that is driving rates, but what is happening to inflation.

Risk Premium 102

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 102

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors. That view has never made sense, because central banking power over rates is at the margin, and the key fundamental drivers of rates are expected inflation and real growth.

Treasury 97

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 97

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Employee Count & Compensation I nvesting Principle Financing Principle Dividend Principle Hurdle Rate Project Returns Financing Mix Financing Type Cash Return Dividends/Buyback s 1. Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. Ratings & Spreads 2. Tax rates 4. Return on Equity 1. Debt Details 1.

Dividends 105

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 105

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

My last valuation of Tesla was in November 2021, towards its market peak, and given its steep fall from grace, in conjunction with Elon Musk's Twitter experiment, it is time for a revisit. In this section, I will begin by looking at the evolution of my Tesla value from 2013 to 2021, and then present my updated valuation of the company.

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 99

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

In 2021, looking at the company, I feel more convinced than I was a few years that it is, at its core, an automobile company, and while it will continue to derive revenues from batteries and perhaps even software, its pathway to becoming a trillion dollar market cap company still runs through the "car company" story.

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

A few of you did take issue with the fact that the growth rate that I used for the first five years dropped from 35%, in my November 2021 valuation , to 24%, in my most recent one. There is not much room to maneuver on either number, since half of all US companies have costs of capital between 7.3%

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

The first is to see how the increase in inflation in 2021 and 2021 has played out in profitability for companies, since inflation can increase profits for some firms, and lower them for others. the returns you can make on investments of equivalent risk, and that game became a lot more difficult to win in 2022.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

As we approach the mid point of 2021, financial markets, for the most part, have had a good year so far. The graph below contrasts the expected inflation rates from the Michigan survey with the expected inflation rate from the treasury markets. Louis estimates for inflation rates exceeding 2.5%

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 80

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

pm (New York time) All three classes start on February 1, 2021 and end on May 10, 2021. Discount rates in intrinsic valaution have to change to reflect current market conditions, and can be expected to change over time. The class times for the coming semester are below: Corporate Finance: Mondays & Wednesdays, 12.30

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

Leading into 2021, the big questions facing investors were about how quickly economies would recover from COVID, with the assumption that the virus would fade during the year, and the pressures that the resulting growth would put on inflation.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 27, 2022

On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ? 169 per share in late 2021. per share, and the mood and momentum that worked in its favor for most of 2021 had turned against the company. 15,000 in March 2021 to ? 41 per share. 2000 per share, and the stock is currently trading at ?

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 98

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Equity Risk across Countries Default risk measures how much risk investors are exposed to, when investing in bonds issued by a government, but when you own a business, or the equity in that business, your risk exposure is not just magnified, but also broader.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Those measures took a beating in 2020, as COVID decimated the earnings of companies in many sectors and regions of the world, and while 2021 was a return to some degree of normalcy, there is still damage that has to be worked through. Louis, FRED , which contains historical data on almost every macroeconomic variable, at least for the US.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

The Drivers of Interest Rates Over the last two decades, for better or worse, we (as investors, consumers and even economics) seem to have come to accept as a truism the notion that central banks set interest rates. Note that high yield issuances which spiked in 2020 and 2021, peak greed years, almost disappeared in 2022.

Banking 69

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 69