Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

To capture the market's mood, I back out the expected return (and equity risk premium) that investors are pricing in, through an implied equity risk premium: Put simply, the expected return is an internal rate of return derived from the pricing of stocks, and the expected cash flows from holding them, and is akin to a yield to maturity on bonds.

Risk Premium 79

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Treasury 79

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

Exacerbating the pain, corporate default spreads rose during the course of 2022: While default spreads rose across ratings classes, the rise was much more pronounced for the lowest ratings classes, part of a bigger story about risk capital that spilled across markets and asset classes.

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Marketability Equity Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

Inflation numbers have been coming in high now, for more than a year, but for much of the early part of 2021, bankers, investors and politicians seemed to be either in denial or casually dismissive of its potential for damage.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

My last valuation of Tesla was in November 2021, towards its market peak, and given its steep fall from grace, in conjunction with Elon Musk's Twitter experiment, it is time for a revisit. In this section, I will begin by looking at the evolution of my Tesla value from 2013 to 2021, and then present my updated valuation of the company.

Start-ups 98

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

Just as rising equity risk premiums push up the cost of equity, rising default spreads push up the cost of debt of companies, with the added complication of higher default risk for those companies that had pushed to the limits of their borrowing capacity in a low interest-rate environment.

Treasury 96

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 96

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

In 2021, looking at the company, I feel more convinced than I was a few years that it is, at its core, an automobile company, and while it will continue to derive revenues from batteries and perhaps even software, its pathway to becoming a trillion dollar market cap company still runs through the "car company" story.

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The Interest Rates Story To me the biggest story of markets in 2021 has been the rise of interest rates, especially at the long end of the maturity spectrum. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

Leading into 2021, the big questions facing investors were about how quickly economies would recover from COVID, with the assumption that the virus would fade during the year, and the pressures that the resulting growth would put on inflation.

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 98

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

The first is to see how the increase in inflation in 2021 and 2021 has played out in profitability for companies, since inflation can increase profits for some firms, and lower them for others. the returns you can make on investments of equivalent risk, and that game became a lot more difficult to win in 2022.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

A few of you did take issue with the fact that the growth rate that I used for the first five years dropped from 35%, in my November 2021 valuation , to 24%, in my most recent one. There is not much room to maneuver on either number, since half of all US companies have costs of capital between 7.3% It was the reason that I argued at a $1.2

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

pm (New York time) All three classes start on February 1, 2021 and end on May 10, 2021. The class times for the coming semester are below: Corporate Finance: Mondays & Wednesdays, 12.30 pm (New York time) Valuation (MBA): Mondays & Wednesdays, 2.00 pm (New York time) Valuation (Undergraduate): Mondays & Wednesdays, 3.30

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 13, 2022

lived under full democracy, in 2021, with large differences across regions. Country Risk: Equity Risk For equity investors, the price of risk is captured by the equity risk premium, and equity risk premiums will vary across countries.

Risk Premium 102

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 102

Appraiser Newsroom

JUNE 4, 2024

She recently received the 2021 LCPA Women to Watch Most Experienced Leader Award. He is a frequent presenter on valuation topics, and is currently a subject matter expert on the Appraisal Foundation’s working group preparing a Valuation Advisory on the Company-Specific Risk Premium.

Business Valuation 59

Business Valuation Intangible Assets Appraisal Finance 59

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 10, 2021

The answer, to me, seems to be obviously yes, though there are still some who argue otherwise, usually with the argument that country risk can be diversified away. In that post, I computed the equity risk premium for the S&P 500 at the start of 2021 to be 4.72%, using a forward-looking, dynamic measure.

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

I spent the first week of 2021 in the same way that I have spent the first week of every year since 1995, collecting data on publicly traded companies and analyzing how they navigated the cross currents of the prior year, both in operating and market value terms.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

Expected returns for Risky Investments : The risk-free rate becomes the base on which you build to estimate expected returns on all other investments. For instance, if you read my last post on equity risk premiums , I described the equity risk premium as the additional return you would demand, over and above the risk free rate.

Risk-free Rate 98

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. I do report on a few market-wide data items especially on risk premiums for both equity and debt. Debt breakdown 2.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Dividends Start-ups EBITDA 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

As we approach the mid point of 2021, financial markets, for the most part, have had a good year so far. Source Data The two estimates move together much of the time, but the consumer expectations are consistently higher, and at the end of April 2021, the consumer survey was forecasting inflation of 3.2%, about 1.1%

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

Russia was also a leading exporter of these commodities, with a disproportionately large share of its oil and gas production going to Europe; in 2021, Russian gas accounted to 45% of EU gas imports. Ukraine is also primarily a natural resource producer, especially iron ore, albeit on a smaller scale.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 80

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 80

Musings on Markets

JULY 22, 2021

Zomato, an Indian online food-delivery company, was opened up to public market investors on July 14, 2021, and its market debut is being watched for clues by a number of other online ventures in India, waiting in the wings to go public. The service was initiated in 2017 and it had 1.5

Marketability 99

Marketability Start-ups Equity Price to Book 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Those measures took a beating in 2020, as COVID decimated the earnings of companies in many sectors and regions of the world, and while 2021 was a return to some degree of normalcy, there is still damage that has to be worked through. Louis, FRED , which contains historical data on almost every macroeconomic variable, at least for the US.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

With stocks, I compute this pre-personal tax return at the start of every month, using the current level of index and expected cash flows to back out an internal rate of return; this is the basis for the implied equity risk premium. It is one more reason that blindly using historical risk premiums can lead to static and strange values.

Dividends 52

Dividends Start-ups Risk Premium Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Beta & Risk 1. Equity Risk Premiums 2. I also have implied equity risk premiums (forward-looking and dynamic estimate of what investors are pricing stocks to earn in the future) for the S&P 500 going back annually to 1960 and monthly to 2008, and equity risk premiums for countries. Buybacks 2.

Dividends 105

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 105

Musings on Markets

MARCH 28, 2022

Risk Surge and Economic Viability : In my last post, I noted the surge in Russia's default spread and country risk premium, making it one of the riskiest parts of the world to operate in, for any business. A Skeptical Look at ESG ESG: The Goodness Gravy Train rolls on (September 2021).

Start-ups 116

Start-ups Alpha Marketability Risk Premium 116

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Equity Risk across Countries Default risk measures how much risk investors are exposed to, when investing in bonds issued by a government, but when you own a business, or the equity in that business, your risk exposure is not just magnified, but also broader.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

Thus, the answer to questions about past interest rate movements (the low rates between 2008 and 2021, the spike in rates in 2022) as well as to where interest rates will go in the future has been to look to central banking smoke signals and guidance. They made a mild comeback in 2023 and that recovery continued in 2024.

Banking 69

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 69

Reynolds Holding

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

NYU Business School Professor Damoradans widely used valuation data, for example, currently shows the United States as having among the lowest equity risk premiums in the world. [3] regulation to initial public offerings were shown to be overstated by the record-breaking boom of IPOs in 2021. Concerns over the openness of U.S.

Systematic Risk 45

Systematic Risk Marketability Equity Risk Premium 45

Musings on Markets

JULY 24, 2024

After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my definition of a crisis.

Risk Premium 75

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups EBITDA 75