Musings on Markets

JULY 27, 2022

On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ? 169 per share in late 2021. per share, and the mood and momentum that worked in its favor for most of 2021 had turned against the company. 15,000 in March 2021 to ? 41 per share. 2000 per share, and the stock is currently trading at ?

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Start-ups Equity Marketability 98

Brian DeChesare

AUGUST 31, 2022

The risk-free rate is higher – because investors benefit from “delaying” their eventual purchase of the underlying shares when they earn higher interest elsewhere. The risk-free rate and time to maturity also affect the Liability component (and other factors, such as the company’s credit quality, play a role).

Banking 89

Banking Risk-free Rate Equity Start-ups 89

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

My last valuation of Tesla was in November 2021, towards its market peak, and given its steep fall from grace, in conjunction with Elon Musk's Twitter experiment, it is time for a revisit. In this section, I will begin by looking at the evolution of my Tesla value from 2013 to 2021, and then present my updated valuation of the company.

Start-ups 98

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 98

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

In 2021, looking at the company, I feel more convinced than I was a few years that it is, at its core, an automobile company, and while it will continue to derive revenues from batteries and perhaps even software, its pathway to becoming a trillion dollar market cap company still runs through the "car company" story.

Start-ups 101

Start-ups Dividends Marketability Market Capitalization 101

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term. Stocks: The What Next?

Equity 93

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 93

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

Those measures took a beating in 2020, as COVID decimated the earnings of companies in many sectors and regions of the world, and while 2021 was a return to some degree of normalcy, there is still damage that has to be worked through.

Risk Premium 99

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 99

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

Returns in 2022 In my first classes in finance, as a student, I was taught that the US treasury rate was a risk free rate, with the logic being that since the US treasury could always print money, it would not default.

Treasury 96

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 96

Andrew Stolz

JANUARY 28, 2022

As of 2021, Idemitsu has a cash-to-assets ratio of 3%. Historically, Japan has a very low risk-free rate. The Japanese gov’t announced to release some of its oil reserve to prevent a further spike in price. Balance sheet – Idemitsu Kosan. Low cash generation ability might result in conservative expansion plans.

Dividends 52

Dividends Risk-free Rate Net Debt Equity 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

In my last two posts, I noted that the prices of risk have drifted down in markets, with both equity risk premiums and default spreads decreasing through 2021.

Risk Premium 90

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 90

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

A few of you did take issue with the fact that the growth rate that I used for the first five years dropped from 35%, in my November 2021 valuation , to 24%, in my most recent one. It was the reason that I argued at a $1.2

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Marketability 99

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

It is precisely because we have been spoiled by a decade of low and stable inflation that the inflation numbers in 2021 and 2022 came as such a surprise to economists, investors and even the Fed.

Risk Premium 102

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 102

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

That said, there are some of you who are not doing your analysis in real time, either because you are in the appraisal business and must value your company as of the start of 2020 or 2021, or a researcher looking at changes over time. will reflect the most recent quarterly accounting filing.

Dividends 105

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 105

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

The first is to see how the increase in inflation in 2021 and 2021 has played out in profitability for companies, since inflation can increase profits for some firms, and lower them for others. the returns you can make on investments of equivalent risk, and that game became a lot more difficult to win in 2022.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

pm (New York time) All three classes start on February 1, 2021 and end on May 10, 2021. Discount rates in intrinsic valaution have to change to reflect current market conditions, and can be expected to change over time. The class times for the coming semester are below: Corporate Finance: Mondays & Wednesdays, 12.30

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 80

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 80

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

As we approach the mid point of 2021, financial markets, for the most part, have had a good year so far. The graph below contrasts the expected inflation rates from the Michigan survey with the expected inflation rate from the treasury markets. Louis estimates for inflation rates exceeding 2.5%

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

Your choice of currency will affect your cash flows and your discount rates, but only because each currency brings it's own expectations of inflation, with higher inflation currencies leading to higher growth rates for cash flows and higher discount rates.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2025

The Drivers of Interest Rates Over the last two decades, for better or worse, we (as investors, consumers and even economics) seem to have come to accept as a truism the notion that central banks set interest rates. Note that high yield issuances which spiked in 2020 and 2021, peak greed years, almost disappeared in 2022.

Banking 69

Banking Treasury Risk Premium Start-ups 69