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Data Update 2 for 2022: US Stocks kept winning in 2021, but…

Musings on Markets

Leading into 2021, the big questions facing investors were about how quickly economies would recover from COVID, with the assumption that the virus would fade during the year, and the pressures that the resulting growth would put on inflation. The year that was.

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Risk Capital and Markets: A Temporary Retreat or Long Term Pull Back?

Musings on Markets

As inflation has taken center stage, markets have gone into retreat globally, and across asset classes. In 2022, as bond rates have risen, stock prices have fallen, and crypto has imploded, even true believers are questioning what the bottom for markets might be, and when we will get there.

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Country Risk: A 2022 Mid-year Update!

Musings on Markets

lived under full democracy, in 2021, with large differences across regions. Country Risk: Equity Risk For equity investors, the price of risk is captured by the equity risk premium, and equity risk premiums will vary across countries.

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Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets

Investors are constantly in search of a single metric that will tell them whether a market is under or over valued, and consequently whether they should buying or selling holdings in that market. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term.

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Market Resilience or Investors In Denial? A Mid-year Assessment for 2023!

Musings on Markets

I am not a market prognosticator for a simple reason. I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis.

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Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update!

Musings on Markets

In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. in the NY Fed survey.