Musings on Markets

JANUARY 26, 2023

My last valuation of Tesla was in November 2021, towards its market peak, and given its steep fall from grace, in conjunction with Elon Musk's Twitter experiment, it is time for a revisit. In this section, I will begin by looking at the evolution of my Tesla value from 2013 to 2021, and then present my updated valuation of the company.

Start-ups 82

Start-ups Marketability Risk Premium Equity 82

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term.

Equity 72

Equity Risk Premium Start-ups Dividends 72

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 30, 2023

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors.

Treasury 76

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Equity 76

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

The nature of markets is that they are never quite settled, as investors recalibrate expectations constantly and reset prices. Clearly, we are not in one of those time periods, as markets approach bipolar territory, with big moves up and down.

Risk Premium 95

Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups Equity 95

Andrew Stolz

JANUARY 28, 2022

I think that the market is too pessimistic about the long-term outlook. As of 2021, Idemitsu has a cash-to-assets ratio of 3%. Historically, Japan has a very low risk-free rate. By 2030, the company plans to increase its renewable capacity to 4 Gigawatt from currently 0.2 Balance sheet – Idemitsu Kosan.

Dividends 52

Dividends Risk-free Rate Net Debt Equity 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

A few of you did take issue with the fact that the growth rate that I used for the first five years dropped from 35%, in my November 2021 valuation , to 24%, in my most recent one. Put simply, there are very, very few companies that generate big revenues and earn high margins at the same time. It was the reason that I argued at a $1.2

Start-ups 99

Start-ups Risk-free Rate Market Capitalization Risk Premium 99

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

In the first few weeks of 2022, we have had repeated reminders from the market that risk never goes away for good, even in the most buoyant markets, and that when it returns, investors still seem to be surprised that it is there.

Risk Premium 69

Risk Premium Beta Start-ups Equity 69

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

I take the point of view that uncertainty should not stop you from valuing companies, that your value estimates will have more error in them, but since the market also faces the same uncertainty, your best bargains may be in the midst of uncertainty. pm (New York time) All three classes start on February 1, 2021 and end on May 10, 2021.

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Start-ups Finance Marketability 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

The first is to see how the increase in inflation in 2021 and 2021 has played out in profitability for companies, since inflation can increase profits for some firms, and lower them for others. the returns you can make on investments of equivalent risk, and that game became a lot more difficult to win in 2022.

Start-ups 52

Start-ups Equity Risk Premium Risk-free Rate 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 24, 2021

As we approach the mid point of 2021, financial markets, for the most part, have had a good year so far. All of these measures, no matter how carefully designed, give a measure of inflation in the past, and markets are ultimately concerned more with inflation in the future. Louis estimates for inflation rates exceeding 2.5%

Treasury 55

Treasury Start-ups Risk Premium Price to Book 55

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

Leading into 2021, the big questions facing investors were about how quickly economies would recover from COVID, with the assumption that the virus would fade during the year, and the pressures that the resulting growth would put on inflation. The year that was.

Risk Premium 82

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 82

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. What is a risk free investment? Why does the risk-free rate matter?

Risk-free Rate 83

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Treasury Start-ups 83

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 10, 2021

Capital Constrained Clearing Rate : The notion that any investment that earns more than what other investments of equivalent risk are delivering is a good one, but it is built on the presumption that businesses have the capital to take all good investments.

Risk-free Rate 52

Risk-free Rate Risk Premium Start-ups Equity 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 13, 2022

lived under full democracy, in 2021, with large differences across regions. I know that there are some of you, who distrust ratings agencies, arguing that they have regional and other biases and/or that they do not adjust ratings in a timely fashion.

Risk Premium 83

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 83

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world. I was a believer in big data and crowd wisdom, well before those terms were even invented.

Risk Premium 93

Risk Premium Start-ups Market Capitalization Corporate Finance 93

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Thus, looking at only the companies in the S&P 500 may give you more reliable data, with fewer missing observations, but your results will reflect what large market cap companies in any sector or industry do, rather than what is typical for that industry.

Dividends 100

Dividends Risk Premium Equity Book Value 100

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

Equity 78

Equity Book Value Start-ups Corporate Finance 78

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

The other is pragmatic , since it is almost impossible to value a company or business, without a clear sense of how risk exposure varies across the world, since for many companies, either the inputs to or their production processes are in foreign markets or the output is outside domestic markets.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Equity Start-ups Risk-free Rate 52