Musings on Markets

MAY 7, 2023

Consequently, you can only value the equity in a bank, and by extension, the only pricing multiples you can use to price banks are equity multiples (PE, Price to Book etc.).

Banking 82

Banking Price to Book Dividends Book Value 82

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

Risk Premium 52

Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In this post, I will begin with a historical assessment of stock returns in the recent past, then move on to evaluate the returns that investors can expect to make, given how they are priced at the start of 2022, and end with a do-it-yourself valuation of the index right now. The year that was.

Risk Premium 98

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 98

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2022

I also looked at how inflation plays out on equity sub-groupings, on two dimensions, the first being market capitalization and the second being price to book, with the former becoming a stand-in for the vaunted small cap premium and the latter for the value versus growth question.

Risk-free Rate 99

Risk-free Rate Treasury Price to Book Start-ups 99

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

That said, this has been a decade of unpredictability, starting with the first quarter of 2020, where COVID ravaged stocks, and I don't think it makes much sense to take charts from 2008 or 2001 or earlier and extrapolating from those. US Equities in 2023: Into the Weeds! trillion in the first six months of 2023, 97.2%

Marketability 98

Marketability Risk Premium Start-ups Treasury 98

Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

Coming in 2020, the ten-year T.Bond rate at 1.92% was already close to historic lows. The arrival of the COVID in February 2020, and the ensuing market meltdown, causing treasury rates to plummet across the spectrum, with three-month T.bill rates dropping from 1.5% In particular, the Fed's own assessments of real growth of 6.5%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

While the value crowd, bereft of victories for a long time, may be inclined to do a victory dance, it is worth noting that the same phenomenon occurred between February and March of 2020, at the start of the COVID crisis, but that growth companies quickly recouped their losses and finished ahead of mature companies by the end of 2020.

Start-ups 100

Start-ups Risk Premium Equity Market Capitalization 100