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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!

Musings on Markets

In 2022, we needed that reminder more than ever before, especially after markets came roaring back from the COVID drop in 2020 and 2021. We invest in equities expecting to earn more than we can make on risk free or guaranteed investments, but the risk in equities is that actual returns can deviate from expectations.

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Interest Rates, Earning Growth and Equity Value: Investment Implications

Musings on Markets

The first quarter of 2021 has been, for the most part, a good time for equity markets, but there have been surprises. The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

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Data Update 3: Inflation and its Ripple Effects!

Musings on Markets

Put simply, no central bank, no matter how powerful, can force market interest rates down, if inflation expectations stay low, or up, if investor are anticipating high inflation. Note that the decrease in default spreads, at least for the lower ratings, mirrors the drop in the implied equity risk premium during the course of 2021.

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Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets

With equities, the metric that has been in use the longest is the PE ratio, modified in recent years to the CAPE, where earnings are normalized (by averaging over time) and sometimes adjusted for inflation. Note that nothing that I have said so far is premised on modern portfolio theory, or any academic view of risk premiums.

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Tesla's Trillion Dollar Moment: A Valuation Revisit!

Musings on Markets

My two most recent valuations were in June 2019 and January 2020, and I am going to go back to them, not just because they are recent, but because they led to investment decisions on my part. Between June 2019 and January 2020, the stock went on a tear, as the stock price more than tripled, and I revisited my Tesla valuation.

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In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value

Musings on Markets

Inflation: The Full Story I wrote my first post on this blog in 2008, and inflation merited barely a mention until 2020, though it is an integral component of investing and valuation. In fact, the average inflation rate in the 2011-20 decade was the lowest of the seven decades that I cover in this chart.

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Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates

Musings on Markets

If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The rise in rates transmitted to corporate bond market rates, with a concurrent rise in default spreads exacerbating the damage to investors.