Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Risk Premium 82

Risk Premium Risk-free Rate Start-ups Equity 82

Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. Why stories matter in a numbers world If you are a numbers valuation, you start with some advantages.

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Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 9, 2021

I would be lying if I said that I have had clarity about Tesla's story over the last decade, because it has so many tangents, distractions and shifts along the way, flirting with narratives about being a battery company, an energy company and a technology company. If you are interested, you can see my valuations from 2014 , 2016 and 2017.

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Andrew Stolz

JULY 5, 2021

It had to be able to stand up to rigorous scrutiny from finance academics and professionals. It had to be clear whether a company was moving up or down in that ranking. Started with 26,000 companies. It had to be a measure that, if improved, could be shown to increase the value of the business. What is a World Class Company?

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Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2022

In this post, I will look at corporate profitability, in all its different dimensions, and how companies across the globe, and across industries, measured up in the most recent years. In 2021, companies recovered entirely from the damage done in 2021, at least in the aggregate, with earnings in 2021 higher than 2019 earnings, by almost 33%.

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Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 10, 2021

One of the big news stories of last week was Jack Dorsey stepping down as CEO of Twitter, and the market's response to that news was to push up Twitter's stock price by almost 10%. In this section, I will begin by looking at the mythology behind this push, and why it does not hold up to common sense questioning.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

The second was that, starting mid-year in 2020, equity markets and the real economy moved in different directions, with the former rising on the expectations a post-virus future, and the latter languishing, as most of the world continued to operate with significant constraints.

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Risk Premium Market Capitalization Equity Start-ups 52

Reynolds Holding

APRIL 4, 2022

Seeing these ads reminded me that, in the lead-up to the financial crisis, subprime lender AmeriQuest advertised in the Super Bowl. The dot-com bubble burst, though, created significant tremors in our markets. As in other start-up fields, many projects likely could fail. We should be technology-neutral.

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Global Finance

MAY 8, 2024

Against this inauspicious backdrop, China Construction Bank (CCB) impressed judges with an array of initiatives demonstrating innovative technological thinking and a keen eye on ESG alignment, regional development and inclusivity. The healthy deposit dynamic at the start of the year continued into the final quarter, with CASA rising to 40%.

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Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

That may reflect the concern that once a person or entity starts borrowing to fund its needs, it is easy to overuse debt, and risk its wellbeing in the process. In that case, the optimal debt ratio for a company is the one that maximizes value, not necessarily the one at which the cost of capital is minimized.

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Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis. Markets, as is their wont, live to surprise, and the first six months of 2023 has wrong-footed the experts (again).

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Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

Second, they have all been in the news in the last few weeks, with Starbucks getting a new CEO, Walgreens announcing that they will be shutting down hundreds of their stores and Intel coming up in the Nvidia conversation, often as a contrast.

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Musings on Markets

MARCH 25, 2021

for the year are at war with its concurrent promise to keep rates low; after all, adding those numbers up yields a intrinsic risk free rate of 8.7%. The Stocks Story As treasury rates have risen in 2021, equity markets have been surprisingly resilient, with stocks up during the first three months. for 2021 and inflation of 2.2%

Equity 52

Equity Risk-free Rate Treasury Start-ups 52

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

The strike by screen actors and writers which started in July is now into almost into its third month, with no end in sight, putting at risk the pipeline of movies and shows that were expected to hit theaters and streaming platforms in the next few months.

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Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises are coming from technology companies, with the tech giants leading the way. I have written about the firm many times, over that period, starting with a valuation that I did of the company in 2012, just ahead of it going public.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 17, 2024

While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of the losses from 2022. Stocks ended the year well, with November and December both delivering strong up movements, and while this left investors feeling good about the year, it was a rocky year.

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Musings on Markets

JUNE 23, 2023

I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well this year, in a market that has been top-heavy and tech-driven, and one big reason is that it contains both NVIDIA and Microsoft, two companies that have benefited from the AI story. From High Growth to Maturity!

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Musings on Markets

APRIL 21, 2022

billion and predicted operating margin of 25% in that year reflected my optimistic take for the company, with substantial reinvestment (in acquisitions and technology) needed along the way (as seen in my reinvestment). My forecasted revenues for 2023 of $11.2

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Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. I profited mightily on that investment, but I sold too soon , when Tesla's market capitalization hit $150 billion, and just before COVID put the company on a new price orbit.

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Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 2, 2020

On Monday, November 16, Airbnb filed it’s preliminary prospectus with the SEC, starting the clock on its long awaited initial public offering. In this section, I will start with a brief history of the company, move on to reviewing its financials leading into 2020, and then look at how it has performed in 2020.

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Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2021

Since so much of Paytm’s success has been driven by the rise if smart phone usage among Indian consumers, and the concurrent rise in mobile payments for goods and services, I will start with a review of that rise, before looking at how Paytm has put itself in position to take advantage of that market shift.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. That is not true!

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Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 6, 2023

A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering , and noted that the reception that the stock gets will be a good barometer of where risk capital stands in the market, right now.

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Cooley M&A

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

Carve out tech acquisitions also continued to be attractive to strategic and private equity buyers, with GTCR’s acquisition of a majority stake in Worldpay from FIS for up to $18.5 billion, IBM’s acquisition of two businesses from Software AG for 2.3 billion leading the pack. 6] Will strategic tech buyers return to the fray in 2024?

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Equity Finance Marketability Start-ups 59

Musings on Markets

DECEMBER 10, 2023

We will then follow up with a framework for thinking about how key people can affect the value of a business, with practical suggestions on valuing and pricing key people. We will end with a discussion of how enterprises try, with mixed effects, to build protections against the loss of key personnel.

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Musings on Markets

APRIL 20, 2021

The Biden Administration's $ 2 trillion infrastructure plan, announced with fanfare a few weeks ago, has opened up a debate about not only what comprises infrastructure, but also about how to pay for it. Not surprisingly. It thus weights bigger companies more than smaller companies. billion in accrual taxes and $15.98

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Start-ups Debt Financing Finance Equity 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 4, 2023

The Lead In As noted in the introductory paragraph, I start from a position of ignorance about the Adani Group, and it thus made sense to fill in that gap. First, they are infrastructure businesses , requiring large up-front investments and having long gestation periods, with regulatory and government oversight.

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Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 1, 2021

In the last year or so, Chinese tech companies, including shining stars like Alibaba, Tencent and Didi have also woken up to this recognition, and investors have had to readjust their expectations for these companies. By the end of 2020, six of the top fifteen were technology companies, and Tencent and Alibaba topped the rankings.

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